Vinod Khosla

Factual · Economics and markets

“Cleantech subsidies are a miniscule fraction of one-percent of these amounts.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, in open letter to CBS · 14 January 2014 · Vinod Khosla hits back at 60 Minutes for cleantech errors (Fortune)

Cleantech subsidies are a minuscule fraction of one percent of the fossil-fuel subsidy amounts referred to.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2014-01-14. The claim compares U.S. cleantech subsidies with a figure of $502 billion in fossil-fuel subsidies (a widely cited global estimate, e.g. from the IEA or IMF). True: credible figures show annual cleantech or renewable subsidies were far below 1% of $502 billion, i.e. well under about $5 billion. Mostly true: cleantech subsidies were under 1% of the total, but not a 'minuscule fraction' of 1%. Mixed: the result depends heavily on the definitions or bases used for the comparison. Mostly false: cleantech subsidies were above 1% of the stated amount, e.g. US renewable subsidies of about $10-15 billion a year (EIA). The claim then rests on a real gap but overstates it, or compares mismatched bases (US versus global). False: cleantech subsidies were comparable to or larger than the stated fossil-fuel subsidy amount.

Evidence

1. Total energy subsidies decline since 2010, with changes in support across fuel types - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 13 March 2015

   “Wind subsidies increased by less than 10%, going from $5.5 billion in 2010 to $5.9 billion in 2013.”

2. Total energy subsidies decline since 2010, with changes in support across fuel types - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 13 March 2015

   “However, solar subsidies increased the most, both in absolute and percentage terms, going from $1.1 billion to $5.3 billion in 2013, with declining solar costs and state-level policies also supporting additional growth.”

3. Total energy subsidies decline since 2010, with changes in support across fuel types - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 13 March 2015

   “Between FY 2010 and FY 2013, the total value of direct federal financial interventions and subsidies in energy markets decreased 23% from $38.0 billion to $29.3 billion dollars, reflecting changes in both the type of subsidies offered and fuels that received support.”

4. Total energy subsidies decline since 2010, with changes in support across fuel types - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 13 March 2015

   “Federal subsidy support for fossil fuels declined from almost $4 billion in FY 2010 to $3.4 billion in FY 2013.”

Reasoning

EIA puts U.S. federal wind subsidies at $5.9 billion in FY2013 (E1) and solar subsidies at $5.3 billion (E2). Together that is about $11.2 billion, roughly 2.2% of $502 billion. That is above 1%, not a tiny fraction of 1%. EIA puts U.S. federal fossil-fuel subsidies at $3.4 billion in FY2013 (E4), a U.S. figure rather than the global $502 billion estimate the criteria use for the comparison. The criteria call that comparing mismatched bases, and they put renewable subsidies of about $10–15 billion a year in the mostly-false range.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Cleantech subsidies are a minuscule fraction of one percent of the fossil-fuel subsidy amounts referred to.” (said 14 January 2014). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_f62dd61ca2b0, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f62dd61ca2b0