Vinod Khosla: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

72 64 80

Medium confidence, 43 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 2007 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

Not scored: 44 unresolvable, 21 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

58 40 75

Low confidence, 9 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2007 to 2010; 19 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 15 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions

All types combined: 70 (likely 62 to 77, high confidence), from 52 claims: 43 factual claims, 9 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Vinod Khosla's claims

9 claims

9 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mostly false	Prediction	23 Dec 2010	The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Prediction · 23 Dec 2010	Technology
Resolved false	Prediction	23 Dec 2010	Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Prediction · 23 Dec 2010	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Mostly true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Resolved false	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Mostly true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology
Mostly true	Prediction	28 Sep 2007	Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Prediction · 28 Sep 2007	Technology

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Vinod Khosla

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Prediction Technology

“The Chevy Volt, which is a good car, is expected by 2012, to ship 40,000 units.”

Vinod Khosla, investor, interview answer 23 December 2010 Vinod Khosla: Searching for the Radical Solution (Scientific American)

The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge it as a prediction of Chevy Volt volume: about 40,000 units shipped by 2012. Accept either reading: shipments or deliveries in calendar year 2012, or cumulative from launch through 31 December 2012. Use whichever reading the evidence supports more closely, and state which one was used. True: GM or registration and sales data show about 40,000 units (36,000–44,000) under that reading by the end of 2012. Mostly true: the figure is within 15% of 40,000 (34,000–46,000) but outside the true band. Mostly false: the figure is between 50% and 85% of 40,000, or between 115% and 150% of it. False: the figure is below 20,000 or above 60,000. Volumes reached only after 2012 do not count toward the deadline.

Evidence

Chevrolet Volt - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“| Calendar year | USA | Canada | Europe (Opel/Vauxhall Ampera)[47] | |---|---|---|---| | 2010 | 326 | n/a | 303 | | 2011 | 7,671 | n/a | 5,270 | | 2012 | 23,461 | n/a | 3,198 |”
Chevy Volt sales triple in year of paradoxes for electric cars The Christian Science Monitor · 4 January 2013
“GM sold a record 23,461 Chevy Volts in 2012, triple the amount it did last year in the electric car's shaky debut. But the impressive figure is still well below GM's 2012 target of 35,000 to 40,000”
Electric Car Sales Triple In 2012 CBS News (Detroit), originally from Green Car Reports · 9 January 2013
“In December, Chevy sold 2,633 Volts, bringing its year's total to 23,461.”
GM losing as much as $49,000 per Volt sold NBC News (Reuters content) · 10 September 2012
“Discounted leases as low as $199 a month helped propel Volt sales in August to 2,831, pushing year-to-date sales to 13,500, well below the 40,000 cars that GM originally had hoped to sell in 2012.”

Reasoning

I used the calendar-year 2012 reading because it fits the 40,000 figure best: E2 and E4 describe 40,000 as GM's sales target for 2012. Three sources (E1, E2 and E3) put 2012 US Volt sales at 23,461, which is about 59% of 40,000 and falls in the mostly-false band. Under the other reading, US Volts sold from launch through 2012 add up to 31,458 (326 + 7,671 + 23,461 in E1), about 79% of 40,000, so that is also mostly false. The Europe figures in E1 are for the Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, not the Chevy Volt, and E1 gives no Canadian figures, so neither changes the result.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012.” (said 23 December 2010). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_944d0f710690, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_944d0f710690

Claims without a verdict

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