Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 64 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 40 75
All types combined: 70 (likely 62 to 77, high confidence), from 52 claims: 43 factual claims, 9 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Vinod Khosla's claims
“In my 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" I called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery!”
Vinod Khosla, on X 6 September 2020 Post by @vkhosla on X, 2020-09-06 (X)
In his 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" Vinod Khosla called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
True if Khosla's 2011 'Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation' (paper or presentation) used the phrase 'quantum-nano-thingamagigit' or a close variant, and the text applies it to QuantumScape or to a battery technology clearly identifiable as QuantumScape's. Mostly true if the document is real and uses the phrase about a battery, but the year differs slightly (for example 2010 or 2012), the spelling differs, or the link to QuantumScape is implied rather than named. Mixed if the phrase appears but its link to QuantumScape is doubtful. Mostly false if the document exists but uses no such phrase, while describing QuantumScape-like battery work in other terms. False if the document does not exist or does not mention any such battery.
Evidence
- Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation Khosla Ventures · 28 August 2011 Own record
“the most prevalent battery by 2020 to 2025 may be what I call a “quantum-‐ nano-‐thingamajigit” battery that is 10 times cheaper and 10 times more energy dense.”
- Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation Khosla Ventures · 28 August 2011 Own record
“Technically it may not even be a (chemical) battery, but rather another sort of electricity storage device.”
Reasoning
The 2011 Khosla Ventures post "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" exists. It uses the phrase "quantum-nano-thingamajigit" (spelled slightly differently from the quote) for a future battery that would be 10 times cheaper and 10 times more energy dense (E1). However, the quoted text does not name QuantumScape or any company. It also says the device may not be a chemical battery at all and may instead be "another sort of electricity storage device" (E2). So the phrase does appear, but nothing in the evidence ties it to QuantumScape, which fits the criteria's "mixed" outcome.
Cite this claim
Vinod Khosla, “In his 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" Vinod Khosla called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery.” (said 6 September 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_40816dc45dbc, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_40816dc45dbc
Claims without a verdict
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