Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 64 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 40 75
All types combined: 70 (likely 62 to 77, high confidence), from 52 claims: 43 factual claims, 9 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Vinod Khosla's claims
“In Europe, clearly strong signals from government have made a big difference.”
Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)
Strong government signals in Europe have made a big difference in advancing renewables there.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2007-09-28. The claim says that strong government policy signals in Europe (for example feed-in tariffs, renewable targets, the EU emissions trading scheme or mandates) made a big difference in advancing renewables there. True: credible analyses or data from before or around 2007 (IEA, EU or national agencies, peer-reviewed studies) credit European government policy with substantially driving renewable deployment or investment, as in Germany, Spain or Denmark. Mostly true: policy is credited as a major driver in leading European countries but with clearly uneven effect across Europe, which the broad 'Europe' wording glosses over. Mixed: the evidence is split, with policy credited in some leading countries but judged weak or ineffective across much of Europe, or with the literature divided on whether policy rather than other factors made the difference. Mostly false: policy had only a modest, marginal or mostly symbolic effect, and the 'big difference' overstates it. False: the evidence shows European government signals made no meaningful difference, or that renewables had not advanced there.
Evidence
- 7. Lessons learned - European Environment Agency European Environment Agency · 2001
“Three Member States (Denmark, Germany and Spain — all countries using this system) contributed 80 % of new wind energy output in the EU-15 over the period 1993–99.”
- 7. Lessons learned - European Environment Agency European Environment Agency · 2001
“The cases examined highlight how vital political support is in order to achieve high levels of penetration of renewable energy technologies.”
- 7. Lessons learned - European Environment Agency European Environment Agency · 2001
“Overall, no single factor is of overwhelming significance in the successful deployment of renewable energy technologies.”
- Photovoltaics: Reviewing the European Feed-in-Tariffs and Changing PV Efficiencies and Costs PubMed Central (peer-reviewed journal article) · 14 May 2014
“The relative success of this policy in various European markets (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) can be largely explained by the extent to which governments have succeeded in meeting two key conditions”
Reasoning
A 2001 European Environment Agency report says political support is vital for high renewable penetration (E2). It also says three countries that all used the same support system (Denmark, Germany and Spain) supplied 80% of new EU-15 wind output in 1993–99 (E1). That backs policy as a major driver in the leading countries, but it also shows the effect was concentrated there rather than spread across Europe. The same report cautions that no single factor dominated (E3), so the broad wording "Europe" and "big difference" goes somewhat beyond the evidence.
Cite this claim
Vinod Khosla, “Strong government signals in Europe have made a big difference in advancing renewables there.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_5e2fd6486f18, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5e2fd6486f18
Claims without a verdict
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