Vinod Khosla

Prediction · Technology

“It would probably add about 2 cents a kilowatt hour to the price of coal, depending upon the price of carbon.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee · 28 September 2007 · Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)

Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge the added cost of CCS (alongside carbon pricing) on coal power against credible estimates current around 2007, in roughly 2007 US dollars, with later real-world project data as corroboration. Sources include MIT 'The Future of Coal' (2007), the IPCC Special Report on CCS (2005), and DOE/NETL baseline studies. The claim is hedged ('about', 'depending upon the price of carbon'). True: central estimates of the incremental cost per kWh of CCS on coal are about 2 cents (1.5–2.5 cents/kWh). Mostly true: central estimates are 1–3 cents/kWh. Mixed: credible sources are split, with some near 2 cents and others well above 3 cents. Mostly false: central estimates are about 3–4.5 cents/kWh, or below 1 cent. False: central estimates are 4.5 cents/kWh or more.

Evidence

1. Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

   “The application of capture technology would add about 1.8 to 3.4 US$ct kWh–1 to the cost of electricity from a pulverized coal power plant”

2. Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

   “Typical costs for transportation and geological storage from coal plants would range from 0.05–0.6 US$ct kWh–1.”

3. Microsoft Word - IPCC Rept on CCS- ESRubin- RITE Feb 2006.doc Carnegie Mellon University (E.S. Rubin), summarising the IPCC Special Report on CCS · February 2006

   “For new power plants, recent studies indicate that CO2 capture adds 12-36 US$/MWh (1.2-3.6 cents/kWh) to the cost of electricity production (COE) relative to a similar plant without capture (based on 2002 US$).”

4. [PDF] MIT – Future of Coal - Montana State Legislature Montana State Legislature (presentation slides summarising MIT 'The Future of Coal' study)

   “Successful implementation of CCS will inevitably add cost for coal combustion and conversion. – $25/ton for capture and compression – $5/ton for storage”

Reasoning

The IPCC Special Report on CCS puts the added cost of capture on a pulverized coal plant at 1.8–3.4 US cents/kWh (E1). It adds 0.05–0.6 cents/kWh for transport and storage (E2), so the central total is roughly 2.5–3 cents/kWh. A Carnegie Mellon summary of the same report gives 1.2–3.6 cents/kWh for capture at new plants in 2002 dollars (E3), a midpoint of about 2.4 cents. These central estimates sit within the 1–3 cent band, near or slightly above the 1.5–2.5 cent band needed for 'true', so the hedged 'about 2 cents' figure is mostly true. E4 gives costs per ton, not per kWh, so it was not used.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a4defe242b8f, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a4defe242b8f