ClaimsVinod Khosla

“It would probably add about 2 cents a kilowatt hour to the price of coal, depending upon the price of carbon.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)

Prediction Technology

Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Judge the added cost of CCS (alongside carbon pricing) on coal power against credible estimates current around 2007, in roughly 2007 US dollars, with later real-world project data as corroboration. Sources include MIT 'The Future of Coal' (2007), the IPCC Special Report on CCS (2005), and DOE/NETL baseline studies. The claim is hedged ('about', 'depending upon the price of carbon'). True: central estimates of the incremental cost per kWh of CCS on coal are about 2 cents (1.5–2.5 cents/kWh). Mostly true: central estimates are 1–3 cents/kWh. Mixed: credible sources are split, with some near 2 cents and others well above 3 cents. Mostly false: central estimates are about 3–4.5 cents/kWh, or below 1 cent. False: central estimates are 4.5 cents/kWh or more.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

    “The application of capture technology would add about 1.8 to 3.4 US$ct kWh–1 to the cost of electricity from a pulverized coal power plant”
  2. E2 Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

    “Typical costs for transportation and geological storage from coal plants would range from 0.05–0.6 US$ct kWh–1.”
  3. E3 Microsoft Word - IPCC Rept on CCS- ESRubin- RITE Feb 2006.doc Carnegie Mellon University (E.S. Rubin), summarising the IPCC Special Report on CCS · February 2006

    “For new power plants, recent studies indicate that CO2 capture adds 12-36 US$/MWh (1.2-3.6 cents/kWh) to the cost of electricity production (COE) relative to a similar plant without capture (based on 2002 US$).”
  4. E4 [PDF] MIT – Future of Coal - Montana State Legislature Montana State Legislature (presentation slides summarising MIT 'The Future of Coal' study)

    “Successful implementation of CCS will inevitably add cost for coal combustion and conversion. – $25/ton for capture and compression – $5/ton for storage”

Reasoning

The IPCC Special Report on CCS puts the added cost of capture on a pulverized coal plant at 1.8–3.4 US cents/kWh (E1). It adds 0.05–0.6 cents/kWh for transport and storage (E2), so the central total is roughly 2.5–3 cents/kWh. A Carnegie Mellon summary of the same report gives 1.2–3.6 cents/kWh for capture at new plants in 2002 dollars (E3), a midpoint of about 2.4 cents. These central estimates sit within the 1–3 cent band, near or slightly above the 1.5–2.5 cent band needed for 'true', so the hedged 'about 2 cents' figure is mostly true. E4 gives costs per ton, not per kWh, so it was not used.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a4defe242b8f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a4defe242b8f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Vinod Khosla, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Vinod Khosla

  1. Resolved false Prediction 23 December 2010
    “Now almost certainly, the traditional lithium ion bulk batteries will not be around in 15 years.”

    Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 23 December 2010
    “The Chevy Volt, which is a good car, is expected by 2012, to ship 40,000 units.”

    The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 28 September 2007
    “I believe 50 million acres of land in this country could supply all our biofuel needs.”

    Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2007
    “Not only that, even if Germany switched over completely to photovoltaics, unless India and China adopted them, we are not going to see a change in the trajectory of climate change.”

    Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2007
    “It will work.”

    Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.