Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 64 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 40 75
All types combined: 70 (likely 62 to 77, high confidence), from 52 claims: 43 factual claims, 9 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Vinod Khosla's claims
“There are plenty of scientists who are not paid by anybody who believe climate change doesn't exist.”
Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)
There are scientists who are not paid by anybody who believe climate change does not exist, though the speaker immediately added that "plenty" was a bit of a stretch.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2007-09-28. The speaker himself withdrew 'plenty', so test only whether some scientists with no funding from interested parties believed climate change does not exist. True: credible evidence shows that in 2007 a number of credentialed scientists, with no documented industry funding, publicly denied that climate change was occurring (not merely its human cause). Mostly true: such scientists existed, but mostly disputed the human cause or the severity rather than whether change was happening at all. Mixed: there were very few such scientists, and their independence from funding is unclear. Mostly false: nearly all prominent sceptics had documented ties to fossil-fuel or advocacy funding, or none denied that change existed outright. False: there were no such scientists.
Evidence
- The Skeptic Westword · 29 June 2006
“Gray says he’s received no money from energy companies, beyond reimbursing his expenses for traveling to a conference or two; in fact, he claims that funding for his own research has suffered as a result of his views.”
- The Skeptic Westword · 29 June 2006
“Gray accepts that the earth has gotten warmer over the past century, particularly in the past three decades.”
- A Note on Skeptics and Contrarians Society of Environmental Journalists (SEJ) · 24 August 2008
“There are a number of climate-change skeptics, less-often quoted perhaps than some more vocal ones discussed later, who have more substantial climate science research publications and who have accepted little or no fossil industry and advocacy group money.”
- Alternative Views on Climate Change | Council on Foreign Relations Council on Foreign Relations · 27 September 2007
“Although alternative views of climate change often have been labeled denial--a few researchers say the world is cooling--most climate-change skeptics do concede the planet is warming.”
Reasoning
E3 (2008) says there were credentialed climate sceptics with substantial research records who had taken little or no money from the fossil-fuel industry or advocacy groups. E1 reports that the sceptic Gray said he had received no energy-company money beyond travel expenses. However, E2 shows that Gray accepted the earth had warmed. E4, dated the day before the claim, says that although a few researchers argued the world was cooling, most sceptics conceded that it was warming. So independent sceptics existed, but they mostly disputed the cause or severity of climate change, not whether it was happening at all.
Cite this claim
Vinod Khosla, “There are scientists who are not paid by anybody who believe climate change does not exist, though the speaker immediately added that "plenty" was a bit of a stretch.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d7ce264b14ba, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d7ce264b14ba
Claims without a verdict
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