Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 64 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 40 75
All types combined: 70 (likely 62 to 77, high confidence), from 52 claims: 43 factual claims, 9 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Vinod Khosla's claims
“A substantial portion of DOE loans is allocated to nuclear energy”
Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, in open letter to CBS 14 January 2014 Vinod Khosla hits back at 60 Minutes for cleantech errors (Fortune)
A substantial portion of DOE loans is allocated to nuclear energy.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2014-01-14. Read 'substantial portion' as roughly a fifth or more of the DOE Loan Programs Office's loans or loan guarantees issued or conditionally committed by then, measured by dollar amount. True: nuclear projects (e.g., the Vogtle conditional guarantees of about $8.3 billion) make up about 20% or more of the dollars committed. Mostly true: the nuclear share is substantial only if conditional commitments are counted, or it is somewhat below 20% but still one of the largest categories. Mixed: the share is about 10–15%. Mostly false: nuclear is a minor share (about 5–10%), or exists only as unused loan authority and not as allocated loans. False: there are essentially no DOE loan dollars allocated to nuclear (under 5%).
Evidence
- [PDF] NRC Staff Motion for the Board to Take Judicial Notice of Additional ... U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC staff filing, quoting a U.S. Department of Energy press release of 2014-02-19) · 21 February 2014
“At that time, the Energy Department made conditional commitments for a total of $8.33 billion in loan guarantees.”
- [PDF] NRC Staff Motion for the Board to Take Judicial Notice of Additional ... U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC staff filing, quoting a U.S. Department of Energy press release) · 21 February 2014
“Currently, the Department’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) supports a large, diverse portfolio of more than $30 billion in loans, loan guarantees, and commitments”
- [PDF] NRC Staff Motion for the Board to Take Judicial Notice of Additional ... U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC staff filing) · 21 February 2014
“a significant portion of the $18.5 billion in loan guarantee authority for new reactor construction is no longer available”
- DOE's Loan Programs Office U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office · December 2013
“First nuclear power plant to begin construction in the US in the last 30 years: Vogtle”
Reasoning
E1 records that DOE made conditional commitments totalling $8.33 billion in nuclear loan guarantees, and E4 identifies Vogtle as a nuclear project in the LPO portfolio. E2 describes the LPO portfolio in February 2014, shortly after the claim date, as more than $30 billion in loans, loan guarantees and commitments, which would put the $8.33 billion at roughly a quarter or less of committed dollars. However, the evidence shows the nuclear dollars only as conditional commitments before the claim date, so the share is substantial only if conditional commitments are counted. E3 adds that a significant portion of the separate $18.5 billion in loan guarantee authority for new reactor construction was no longer available; this is loan authority rather than allocated loans.
Cite this claim
Vinod Khosla, “A substantial portion of DOE loans is allocated to nuclear energy.” (said 14 January 2014). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_304ebcfdd8b4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_304ebcfdd8b4
Claims without a verdict
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