ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

73 claims

73 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Factual 28 Jul 2025 Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Jul 2023 Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated. Factual · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia. Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2022 A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Jan 2021 Bonds are even more expensive by historical comparison than stocks. Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2020 The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2020 In Grantham's opinion, the U.S. trend GDP growth rate has fallen from over 3% a year to at best 1.5%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 Donald Trump said a few anti-Fed things during the election campaign. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 For about 20 years after 1996 the S&P 500 P/E ratio stayed high by 1935-1995 standards. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 Grantham used to call profit margins the most dependably mean-reverting series in finance. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2017 Grantham said the US market has been acting as if it is oscillating normally enough, but around a much higher average P/E. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2017 Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 7 Nov 2016 On November 7, 2016 the S&P 500 price was 8% below the 2-sigma level of 2300 calculated by GMO. Factual · 7 Nov 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jan 2016 China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Grantham had earlier warned of trouble if China quickly slowed its demand growth for minerals. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 By the time China's demand growth for metals and coal stopped, miners had spent an unprecedented $1.25 trillion on expansion. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2016 From late 2002 into 2006 the Fed raised rates by as much as 430 basis points as the economy recovered. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2016 Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO is solvent and has stayed in business. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO has modeled momentum and value as two key variables for 33 years. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Robert Shiller's "fair value" series assumed perfect foresight of all future dividends. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 GMO's calls on the Japan 65 P/E market and the 2000 U.S. tech bubble were 2 to 3 years early. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Keynes explained that to keep your job you must never, ever be wrong on your own. Factual · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Apr 2011 Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jul 2010 Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets and causes global sea levels to rise. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Oct 2009 Less than a year before October 2009, the banks behind that year's record bonus pool, estimated at about $23 billion, had been on the edge of a run on the bank. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Apr 2007 Good or excellent economic fundamentals combined with tightening credit often result in a falling market. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2007 In May 2006 emerging markets declined by 25% in three weeks, during what was fundamentally their best year in history. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO cofounder, research note 31 August 2022 Jeremy Grantham: superbubble hasn't popped yet (Fortune)

Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge the US stock market downturn under way at 31 Aug 2022, using the S&P 500, over the 12 months that followed (to 31 Aug 2023). The 'worst' came later if the market set a new cycle low, closing below the June 2022 trough (S&P 500 close of about 3,667 on 16 June 2022). TRUE: the S&P 500 closed clearly below the June 2022 low (more than about 2% below it) at some point in that window. MOSTLY TRUE: a new closing low was set, but less than about 2% below the June 2022 low. MIXED: no new cycle low, but the index fell more than 10% below its 31 Aug 2022 close. MOSTLY FALSE: only a small further fall below the 31 Aug 2022 level (under 10%) with no new low. FALSE: the index did not fall meaningfully below its 31 Aug 2022 level, and the downturn ended without getting worse.

Evidence

  1. Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
    “#2022-10-12|3577.03”
  2. U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2022 - Commentary | S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Dow Jones Indices · 5 July 2022
    “It reached a closing low of -23.55% (3,666.77, on June 16), then seesawed upward, as buyers went bargain hunting”
  3. S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance
    “| Aug 31, 2022 | 4,000.67 | 4,015.37 | 3,954.53 | 3,955.00 | 3,955.00 | 4,542,490,000 |”
  4. Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
    “#2022-06-16|3666.77”

Reasoning

The June 2022 closing low of the S&P 500 was 3,666.77 on June 16 (E2, E4), and the index closed at 3,955.00 on 31 Aug 2022 (E3). FRED's S&P 500 data show a close of 3,577.03 on 12 Oct 2022 (E1). That is about 2.4% below the June low and falls inside the 12-month window. Under the criteria, a new cycle low more than about 2% below the June trough resolves the claim as true.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.” (said 31 August 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8b5df671e656, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8b5df671e656

Claims without a verdict

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