ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

5 claims

5 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Back to the list

Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO viewpoint author January 2023 After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder! (GMO)

The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Reference market: the S&P 500 (U.S. equities), for the bear market that began in January 2022. Judged at the end of 2024. The 'final low' is the lowest close of that bear market before a sustained recovery to new highs. TRUE: that lowest close occurred in 2024 after the first quarter ('well into 2024'). MOSTLY TRUE: it occurred in the first quarter of 2024. MOSTLY FALSE: it occurred in 2023, below the 2022 low. FALSE: the bear market's lowest close occurred in 2022 and the index recovered without setting a lower low in 2023-2024 (for example it reached new all-time highs before or during 2024 without a new low). The hedge ('might') does not change the test.

Evidence

  1. 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
    “It took 15 months and a 38% rally from the low in October 2022 to get there.”
  2. 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
    “By the third week of January, the S&P 500 was back at an all-time high for the first time in two years.”
  3. S&P 500 closes at record high for first time in two years | CNN Business CNN Business · 19 January 2024
    “The benchmark index closed at 4,839.81, besting its previous high of 4,796.56, reached on January 3, 2022.”
  4. 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
    “But the fears never materialized and the S&P 500 would bottom on August 5 and never look back.”

Reasoning

E1 puts the bear market's low in October 2022 and says it took a 38% rally over 15 months to get back to the prior high. E2 and E3 report that the S&P 500 closed at a record 4,839.81 on January 19, 2024, above its January 3, 2022 high, so the bear market ended with no lower low in 2023 or 2024. The August 5, 2024 bottom in E4 was a pullback after the index had already set new highs, so it was not the final low of the 2022 bear market. Under the criteria, a 2022 low followed by new all-time highs resolves false.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.” (said January 2023). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_6379b5a0660c, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6379b5a0660c

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeremy Grantham? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.