The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Reference market: the S&P 500 (U.S. equities), for the bear market that began in January 2022. Judged at the end of 2024. The 'final low' is the lowest close of that bear market before a sustained recovery to new highs. TRUE: that lowest close occurred in 2024 after the first quarter ('well into 2024'). MOSTLY TRUE: it occurred in the first quarter of 2024. MOSTLY FALSE: it occurred in 2023, below the 2022 low. FALSE: the bear market's lowest close occurred in 2022 and the index recovered without setting a lower low in 2023-2024 (for example it reached new all-time highs before or during 2024 without a new low). The hedge ('might') does not change the test.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
“It took 15 months and a 38% rally from the low in October 2022 to get there.”
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E2 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
“By the third week of January, the S&P 500 was back at an all-time high for the first time in two years.”
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E3 S&P 500 closes at record high for first time in two years | CNN Business CNN Business · 19 January 2024
“The benchmark index closed at 4,839.81, besting its previous high of 4,796.56, reached on January 3, 2022.”
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E4 2024: The Year in Charts - Charlie Bilello's Blog Compound Advisors (Charlie Bilello's Blog) · 13 January 2025
“But the fears never materialized and the S&P 500 would bottom on August 5 and never look back.”
Reasoning
E1 puts the bear market's low in October 2022 and says it took a 38% rally over 15 months to get back to the prior high. E2 and E3 report that the S&P 500 closed at a record 4,839.81 on January 19, 2024, above its January 3, 2022 high, so the bear market ended with no lower low in 2023 or 2024. The August 5, 2024 bottom in E4 was a pullback after the index had already set new highs, so it was not the final low of the 2022 bear market. Under the criteria, a 2022 low followed by new all-time highs resolves false.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.” (said January 2023). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_6379b5a0660c, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6379b5a0660c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
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Mostly false
“sometime during that depressed phase P/E ratios will also be pulled down as is typical, giving us a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.