The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
This is a strongly hedged prediction ('may very well'); judge it on outcome. The question is whether the January 2023 equity rally (S&P 500, or a broad global index if the context says so) ended within January. True: the index peaked in January 2023 and then fell back, with no new rally high in February or later in the following weeks. Mostly false: the rally carried into early February (new highs after 31 January) and then reversed within weeks. False: the rally ran well past January, with the index going on to climb above its January highs and stay there over the following months. Mixed and mostly true are not used, because this is a single outcome tied to a date.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 28 October 2026
“#2023-02-02|4179.76”
-
E2 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC · 28 October 2026
“#2023-01-31|4076.60”
-
E3 February 2023 Market Recap - Pittenger & Anderson, Inc. Pittenger & Anderson, Inc. · 7 March 2023
“The S&P 500 gave back some of the gains from January while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were flat for the month.”
-
E4 February 2023 Market Recap - Pittenger & Anderson, Inc. Pittenger & Anderson, Inc. · 7 March 2023
“Initially, the S&P 500 managed to sustain momentum following January’s rally.”
Reasoning
FRED data puts the S&P 500 at 4076.60 on 31 January 2023 (E2) and higher, at 4179.76, on 2 February 2023 (E1). This shows the rally continued past the end of January. A February recap says the index first kept its momentum after January's rally (E4) and then gave back some of its January gains over the month (E3). That matches the "mostly false" criterion: the rally ran into early February and then reversed within weeks. The evidence does not show the index climbing above its January highs and staying there for months, so the outcome does not meet "false".
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.” (said January 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_5a7dfe7f6ec5, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5a7dfe7f6ec5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
-
Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
-
Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
-
Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
-
Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
-
Mostly false
“sometime during that depressed phase P/E ratios will also be pulled down as is typical, giving us a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.