Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge the US stock market downturn under way at 31 Aug 2022, using the S&P 500, over the 12 months that followed (to 31 Aug 2023). The 'worst' came later if the market set a new cycle low, closing below the June 2022 trough (S&P 500 close of about 3,667 on 16 June 2022). TRUE: the S&P 500 closed clearly below the June 2022 low (more than about 2% below it) at some point in that window. MOSTLY TRUE: a new closing low was set, but less than about 2% below the June 2022 low. MIXED: no new cycle low, but the index fell more than 10% below its 31 Aug 2022 close. MOSTLY FALSE: only a small further fall below the 31 Aug 2022 level (under 10%) with no new low. FALSE: the index did not fall meaningfully below its 31 Aug 2022 level, and the downturn ended without getting worse.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2022-10-12|3577.03”
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E2 U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2022 - Commentary | S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Dow Jones Indices · 5 July 2022
“It reached a closing low of -23.55% (3,666.77, on June 16), then seesawed upward, as buyers went bargain hunting”
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E3 S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance
“| Aug 31, 2022 | 4,000.67 | 4,015.37 | 3,954.53 | 3,955.00 | 3,955.00 | 4,542,490,000 |”
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E4 Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2022-06-16|3666.77”
Reasoning
The June 2022 closing low of the S&P 500 was 3,666.77 on June 16 (E2, E4), and the index closed at 3,955.00 on 31 Aug 2022 (E3). FRED's S&P 500 data show a close of 3,577.03 on 12 Oct 2022 (E1). That is about 2.4% below the June low and falls inside the 12-month window. Under the criteria, a new cycle low more than about 2% below the June trough resolves the claim as true.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.” (said 31 August 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8b5df671e656, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8b5df671e656
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Mostly false
“sometime during that depressed phase P/E ratios will also be pulled down as is typical, giving us a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.