The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
This is a strongly hedged prediction from January 2023. Judge it over 'a few more months', taken as through end-May 2023. Causation by the Presidential Cycle cannot be tested; the test is whether the market was supported. True: the S&P 500 held steady or rose from its January 2023 level through about May 2023, with no major decline. Mostly true: it was roughly flat to up overall, with a temporary dip of under 10%. Mostly false: it ended the period modestly lower. False: it fell substantially (10% or more) over the period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 [PDF] TALKING POINTS - FTPortfolios.com First Trust Advisors L.P. · 6 June 2023
“The S&P 500 Index closed May 2023 at 4,179.83, 12.86% below its all-time closing high of 4,796.56 on 1/3/22, according to Bloomberg.”
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E2 TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 7 February 2023
“The S&P 500 Index (“index”) closed January 2023 at 4,076.60, 15.01% below its all-time closing high”
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E3 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2023-03-13|3855.76”
Reasoning
The S&P 500 closed January 2023 at 4,076.60 [E2] and closed May 2023 at 4,179.83 [E1], a gain of about 2.5% over the window. FRED data show a close of 3,855.76 on 2023-03-13 [E3], about 5.4% below the January close. Overall the index was up, from 4,076.60 at the end of January [E2] to 4,179.83 at the end of May [E1], and the one mid-window close in the evidence (3,855.76 on 13 March [E3]) was about 5% below the January level, consistent with the criteria for mostly true.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.” (said January 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_1202821019aa, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1202821019aa
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
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Mostly false
“sometime during that depressed phase P/E ratios will also be pulled down as is typical, giving us a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.