Jeremy Grantham: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

72 63 80

Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

56 46 67

Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

31 claims

31 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mostly true	Prediction	Jan 2023	The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Prediction · Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	Jan 2023	A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Prediction · Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	Jan 2023	The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2023	The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	31 Aug 2022	Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2020	By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Prediction · 2020	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	2020	During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Prediction · 2020	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2020	It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Prediction · 2020	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2020	U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Prediction · 2020	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	2017	Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Prediction · 2017	AI policy and governance
Resolved true	Prediction	2017	Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Prediction · 2017	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2017	Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Prediction · 2017	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	Jan 2016	In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Prediction · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2016	Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Prediction · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	2016	He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Prediction · 2016	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	2016	Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Prediction · 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	Apr 2011	Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Prediction · Apr 2011	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	Jul 2010	There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Prediction · Jul 2010	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Jul 2010	It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Prediction · Jul 2010	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	Jul 2010	Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Prediction · Jul 2010	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	Oct 2009	Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Prediction · Oct 2009	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Oct 2009	The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Prediction · Oct 2009	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Oct 2009	GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Prediction · Oct 2009	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Oct 2009	The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Prediction · Oct 2009	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	Apr 2007	Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Apr 2007	Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Apr 2007	The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	Apr 2007	The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	Apr 2007	In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Apr 2007	When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Prediction · Apr 2007	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Apr 2007	GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Prediction · Apr 2007	Their own work or organisation

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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“may help to support the market for a few more months.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO viewpoint author January 2023 After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder! (GMO)

The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

This is a strongly hedged prediction from January 2023. Judge it over 'a few more months', taken as through end-May 2023. Causation by the Presidential Cycle cannot be tested; the test is whether the market was supported. True: the S&P 500 held steady or rose from its January 2023 level through about May 2023, with no major decline. Mostly true: it was roughly flat to up overall, with a temporary dip of under 10%. Mostly false: it ended the period modestly lower. False: it fell substantially (10% or more) over the period.

Evidence

[PDF] TALKING POINTS - FTPortfolios.com First Trust Advisors L.P. · 6 June 2023
“The S&P 500 Index closed May 2023 at 4,179.83, 12.86% below its all-time closing high of 4,796.56 on 1/3/22, according to Bloomberg.”
TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 7 February 2023
“The S&P 500 Index (“index”) closed January 2023 at 4,076.60, 15.01% below its all-time closing high”
Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2023-03-13|3855.76”

Reasoning

The S&P 500 closed January 2023 at 4,076.60 [E2] and closed May 2023 at 4,179.83 [E1], a gain of about 2.5% over the window. FRED data show a close of 3,855.76 on 2023-03-13 [E3], about 5.4% below the January close. Overall the index was up, from 4,076.60 at the end of January [E2] to 4,179.83 at the end of May [E1], and the one mid-window close in the evidence (3,855.76 on 13 March [E3]) was about 5% below the January level, consistent with the criteria for mostly true.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.” (said January 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_1202821019aa, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1202821019aa

Claims without a verdict

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