ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

543 claims · page 1 of 6

543 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 It’s intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 The higher [bubbles] go, the harder and longer they fall. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 how the market works. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 treated us as if we were deliberately trying to stop them getting rich. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 ride out the odd 50% decline, Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 Chapter 12 of The General Theory is about real life Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 Take a little more risk Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 I wonder how many people sit on their deathbed and say they took too much risk. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 In a bull market, [clients] are jumping around full of energy Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 you get fired much more quickly. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 as true today as it was then Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 this is the only case of having your cake and eat it. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 I’m only interested in the really great bubbles like 1929, 2000, and 2021, [which] are the three senior bubbles in [the] U.S stock market. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 We can do that before the real effects of A.I. kick in. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 It’s very difficult to tell. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Lord knows this was complicated before A.I. raised its ugly head. We had inflation, the Fed, how quickly would rates go up, how far would… Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 And how badly other economic variables will be—the trouble within global trade, the trouble with China, the trouble with the war. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Some of the brightest people on the planet say it’s all nonsense, it’s just a parrot learning by trial and error. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 We have checked off pretty well every one of the boxes, Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Other people say it will change everything, it will double productivity and everything in between, Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Periodic shortages and bottlenecks of everything obviously push up prices and drive down output. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 depends on how precisely the deterioration from perfect conditions will play out. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 negative examples, despite being clear and recent, are so easily ignored. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 However, I grant the point that the fewer the data points the more significant the data had better be. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Subtleties of relative value are left for later. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Even brilliant performances before that do not count; they are apparently lost in the mists of time. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 If a large meteorite approached of the scale that cost the Earth some 80% of all its life about 60 million years ago, I doubt even… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Politicians have always liked to be re-elected. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 The U.S. administration, with 85 years of help from a “completely independent” (ahem) Fed, clearly rules the global waves. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 My reasoning was simple. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 the economy than equities through construction starts and associated expenditures. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 In fact it has probably changed less than our understanding of the laws of physics. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Also still attractive is the spread between value and growth equities in the U.S., despite a strong last 18 months for value, as shown in… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Despite the generally unattractive nature of the U.S. equity market and the extremely tricky global economy, there are still a surprising… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 It shows that emerging markets are reasonably priced and the value sector of emerging is cheap. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 do not remotely have the resources to green the global economy with current technology. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 the first phase of an extreme bubble breaking is in my opinion almost certain Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 could only deteriorate, and that is precisely what they all did. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 How significantly corporate fundamentals deteriorate will mean everything during the next twelve to eighteen months. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 This is disappointing but quite typical. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 But I would reply that we have six classic, gigantic bubbles now, excluding our current, very worthy number seven, and human nature, on… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 I believe stocks related to addressing the problems of climate change and the increasing pressure on many raw materials have a substantial… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 They are just accidents waiting to happen, the very opposite of unexpected. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 So don’t mess with housing! But we have. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Given the starting conditions of extraordinary speculative euphoria, this was all but certain. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Even the direst case of a 50% decline from here would leave us at just under 2000 on the S&P, or about 37% cheap. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Our intellectual fallback, in any case, has always been value and the inescapable truth that if you triple the price of an asset, you will… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Sometimes the data is so good that a single data point will suffice. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Conversely, “deep” value, having done less well, is still very attractive on a relative basis. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 So you shouldn’t be tempted to think it absolutely cannot happen. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 For the market to be able to muddle through the closing stages of this bubble’s bursting without severe damage will require some luck for… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Above all they need enlightened planning, which in an era of deteriorating democracy and geopolitics is at a premium. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 It also provides sufficient data for investors to try to sidestep some of the pain. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 At least for me it does. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2022 We must hope this time for a minor one. Not checkable · 31 Aug 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2022 This is always possible. Not checkable · 31 Aug 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2022 Each cycle is different, and each government response is unpredictable, Not checkable · 31 Aug 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2022 The current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all… Not checkable · 31 Aug 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2022 If the bear market has already ended, the parallels with the three other U.S. superbubbles—so far so strangely in line—would be completely… Not checkable · 31 Aug 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 “Today’s wounded economy is totally different,” he says. Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior. Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 “The mantra for 2020 was that engineered low interest rates can prevent a decline in asset prices. Forever!” he observes. Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a full-fledged, epic bubble,” writes Grantham. Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 Every fault of human psychology will be pulling investors in,” he cautions. Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 8 Jan 2021 The single most dependable feature of the late stages of the great bubbles of history has been really crazy investor behavior, especially… Not checkable · 8 Jan 2021
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Exhibit 1 shows the data. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 In 2007 we led our clients relatively painlessly through the housing bust. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 But this is only round one. And many global administrations are, shall we say, not consistently sensible. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 The best possible outcome would be that there will be, almost miraculously, billions of doses of effective vaccine by year-end. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 So, after a 10-year economic recovery, this would have been a perfectly normal time historically for a setback. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 The virus is a bottomless pit of complexity, contradictory data, and guesswork. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Things can always change and precedents can become irrelevant Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 The good news is the days flash by. The bad news is that new data arrives faster than humans can keep up with. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Caution and patience are likely to be two of them. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 At GMO we dealt with three major events prior to this crisis, and rightly or wrongly, we felt “nearly certain” that sooner or later we… Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 At least the size and speed of the initial financial help, which fortunately we learned to do in the housing financial bust, has saved us… Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 In addition, everything is uncertain, perhaps to a unique degree. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Yes, the market occasionally gets impacted by panics and euphoria, but mostly it reflects the current data. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Factors that disturb it depress the ratio. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 In short, we have never lived in a period where the future was so uncertain. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 No surprises – the market loves high margins and hates high inflation. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 Sound and massive infrastructure spending would address the problem better, including greening both the grid and energy production. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 That being said, this is a new type of crisis and much will be different. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 My simple life at GMO of focusing most of my efforts on climate change related investing was rudely interrupted by the coronavirus. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 There are no certainties here. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 The interactions of the virus with the economy and new economic measures are the same: complex and without precedent. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 But this event is unlike all those. It is totally new and there can be no near certainties, merely strong possibilities. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 This is why Ben Inker, our Head of Asset Allocation, is nervous and this is why you are nervous, or should be. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 It is a coincident indicator of comfort. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 The market’s P/E level typically reflects current conditions. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 There are no certainties but there are probably still some better and safer themes. Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2020 So, in terms of risk and return – particularly of the worst possible outcomes compared to the best – the current market seems lost in… Not checkable · 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 then you should at least be prepared to be frustrated for some considerable further time Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 Corporate power, however, really hinges on other things, especially the ease with which money can influence policy. Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 It is a deeply entrenched establishment view, or so it seems. Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 Indeed, a trend is by definition a level below which half the time is spent. Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 This is not a trivial difference to investors Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 other than pushing growth back or forward a quarter or so, I believe they do not do Not checkable · 2017
Not checkable Not checkable 2017 a regular bear market of 15% to 20% can always occur for any one of many reasons. Not checkable · 2017
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Jeremy Grantham

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“It’s intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult”

Jeremy Grantham 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)

It’s intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “It’s intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_0c960bf6ab34, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0c960bf6ab34

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