ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

1,004 claims · page 1 of 11

1,004 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 It’s intellectually easy and psychologically disastrously difficult Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 The higher [bubbles] go, the harder and longer they fall. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 how the market works. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 treated us as if we were deliberately trying to stop them getting rich. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Mostly false Factual 28 Jul 2025 Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 ride out the odd 50% decline, Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 Chapter 12 of The General Theory is about real life Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 Take a little more risk Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 I wonder how many people sit on their deathbed and say they took too much risk. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 U.S. equities are a contender for the highest priced in history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 In a bull market, [clients] are jumping around full of energy Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 you get fired much more quickly. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 as true today as it was then Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 28 Jul 2025 this is the only case of having your cake and eat it. Not checkable · 28 Jul 2025
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 I’m only interested in the really great bubbles like 1929, 2000, and 2021, [which] are the three senior bubbles in [the] U.S stock market. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 We can do that before the real effects of A.I. kick in. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 It’s very difficult to tell. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Lord knows this was complicated before A.I. raised its ugly head. We had inflation, the Fed, how quickly would rates go up, how far would… Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 And how badly other economic variables will be—the trouble within global trade, the trouble with China, the trouble with the war. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Some of the brightest people on the planet say it’s all nonsense, it’s just a parrot learning by trial and error. Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 We have checked off pretty well every one of the boxes, Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Not checkable Not checkable 5 Jul 2023 Other people say it will change everything, it will double productivity and everything in between, Not checkable · 5 Jul 2023
Mostly true Factual 5 Jul 2023 Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated. Factual · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Periodic shortages and bottlenecks of everything obviously push up prices and drive down output. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 depends on how precisely the deterioration from perfect conditions will play out. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Mostly true Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia. Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 negative examples, despite being clear and recent, are so easily ignored. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 GMO took extreme risk-reducing measures for the housing bubble in 2007. Factual · Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 However, I grant the point that the fewer the data points the more significant the data had better be. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The odds of a major US market decline from January 2023 are lower than they were a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 GMO has two strategies, Climate Change and Resources, which have very sound 5-year and 10-year records respectively. Factual · Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Subtleties of relative value are left for later. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Even brilliant performances before that do not count; they are apparently lost in the mists of time. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 If a large meteorite approached of the scale that cost the Earth some 80% of all its life about 60 million years ago, I doubt even… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Mixed Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The 2022 single-year damage to broadly diversified stock/bond portfolios was the worst in nearly a century. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 Grantham told Tyler Cowen that three U.S. bubbles, the housing bubble and Japan's 1989 land and stock bubbles were sufficient data to form a reasonably confident opinion. Factual · Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In 2022 the third quartile of U.S. value stocks, those moderately cheaper than the market, did extremely well. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Politicians have always liked to be re-elected. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 The U.S. administration, with 85 years of help from a “completely independent” (ahem) Fed, clearly rules the global waves. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 My reasoning was simple. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 the economy than equities through construction starts and associated expenditures. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 In fact it has probably changed less than our understanding of the laws of physics. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In the other three great US bubbles, the market low came 11, 15 and 19 months after recession started. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 "Polycrisis" may well be the word of the year for 2023. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Also still attractive is the spread between value and growth equities in the U.S., despite a strong last 18 months for value, as shown in… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Despite the generally unattractive nature of the U.S. equity market and the extremely tricky global economy, there are still a surprising… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The factor that most moves the vote in U.S. elections is the state of the labor market in the six months before the election. Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 It shows that emerging markets are reasonably priced and the value sector of emerging is cheap. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In early 2022, in "Let the Wild Rumpus Begin," Grantham and GMO predicted US losses could reach $17 trillion in stocks and $6 trillion in bonds (within $35 trillion total). Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 do not remotely have the resources to green the global economy with current technology. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 the first phase of an extreme bubble breaking is in my opinion almost certain Not checkable · Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In 2022 there was a $2 trillion loss in cryptocurrency, alongside US stock losses over $10 trillion and bond losses over $5 trillion. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 GMO completely exited the Japanese market in the late 1980s and most of its U.S. growth stocks in 1998-99 as those bubbles formed. Factual · Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 From 1932 through 2012, the UK market had a bigger jump on the U.S. presidential cycle than the U.S. market did. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 could only deteriorate, and that is precisely what they all did. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 As of January 2023, the S&P 500 needs a 33% rally to recover its 2022 losses in real terms. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 Emerging markets, though much cheaper than the U.S. a year before January 2023, fell by a similar amount in the broad decline. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 How significantly corporate fundamentals deteriorate will mean everything during the next twelve to eighteen months. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 This is disappointing but quite typical. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 Historically, market valuations have usually overcorrected to below trend as fundamentals deteriorated. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In 2002, the S&P 500 was down 22% while emerging equities, higher beta and much cheaper, were down only 2%. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The first phase of a bear market typically is a broad markdown with only generalizations used for differentiation. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 But I would reply that we have six classic, gigantic bubbles now, excluding our current, very worthy number seven, and human nature, on… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 If any of the major risk factors gets out of control, it might cause a severe global recession. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 I believe stocks related to addressing the problems of climate change and the increasing pressure on many raw materials have a substantial… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 They are just accidents waiting to happen, the very opposite of unexpected. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The Paul Volcker era was the only Fed era in which the political market cycle did not exist. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 So don’t mess with housing! But we have. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 In a worst case with severe recession, the market could fall 50% from January 2023 levels. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Given the starting conditions of extraordinary speculative euphoria, this was all but certain. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The US house price to income ratio, though above its 2006 record, is still well below the 10x to 20x multiples in cities such as Vancouver, London, Paris, Shanghai, Sydney and Taiwan. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Even the direst case of a 50% decline from here would leave us at just under 2000 on the S&P, or about 37% cheap. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The Japanese stock and real estate bubbles that peaked in 1989 are the only case in history of fully fledged stock and real estate bubbles coinciding. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Our intellectual fallback, in any case, has always been value and the inescapable truth that if you triple the price of an asset, you will… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Sometimes the data is so good that a single data point will suffice. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Conversely, “deep” value, having done less well, is still very attractive on a relative basis. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 The U.S. stock market is far more sensitive to pre-election stimulus than the economy and employment are, as seen with Covid stimulus in 2020 and 2021. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 So you shouldn’t be tempted to think it absolutely cannot happen. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 In January, stocks with characteristics favored by individual investors (small caps, cheap stocks, prior-year losers) show relative strength. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 For the market to be able to muddle through the closing stages of this bubble’s bursting without severe damage will require some luck for… Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 Grantham expected a broad market decline in 2022 even without the unexpected events such as the Ukraine war and inflation surge. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 Above all they need enlightened planning, which in an era of deteriorating democracy and geopolitics is at a premium. Not checkable · Jan 2023
Not researched Factual Jan 2023 As of January 2023, US stock valuations are still nowhere near their long-term averages. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable Jan 2023 It also provides sufficient data for investors to try to sidestep some of the pain. Not checkable · Jan 2023
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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“For the first time in American history, the real estate market, the bond market, and the stock market”

Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)

For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 28 July 2025. The claim has two parts: (a) US real estate, bonds and stocks were all in bubble territory at once, and (b) this had never happened before in US history. Bubble territory means valuations at historical extremes on standard measures (e.g. Grantham's 2-sigma above-trend definition, CAPE, house price-to-income ratios, bond yields far below historical norms). True: all three met such a standard in July 2025, and no earlier period did so at the same time. Mostly true: both parts hold but one market sat just at the edge of the threshold. Mixed: all three were extreme but there was an earlier episode of the same (including the 2021-22 episode Grantham himself described as an 'everything bubble'), or only two of the three were extreme. Mostly false: only one market was clearly at bubble levels. False: valuations in most or all three markets were not historically extreme in July 2025 (e.g. bond yields at or above historical norms).

Evidence

  1. The Bubble Indicator: Is the Stock Market Overheating? Visual Capitalist · 14 February 2025
    “In December 2024, the S&P 500 CAPE ratio stood at 37.9—well above its long-term average of 17.6. Notably, it has only exceeded this level during the Dot-Com bubble and in 2021.”
  2. [PDF] Key Facts Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies · 24 June 2025
    “In 2024, the price-to-income ratio hit 5.0, on par with the record highs reached in 2022 and well above the prepandemic reading of 4.1 in 2019 (Figure 6 & Interactive).”
  3. Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
    “| 2025-07-01 | 4.39 |”
  4. Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
    “| 2021-05-01 | 1.62 |”

Reasoning

The evidence shows extreme stock and housing valuations in 2024 [E1][E2] and a July 2025 10-year yield of 4.39% [E3], but it does not place that yield against historical norms, so whether the bond market was at bubble levels is not settled. It also does not show all three markets extreme at the same earlier time, so neither path to the verdict is established.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0a99904eeb31, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0a99904eeb31

Claims without a verdict

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