For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory.

Judge as of 28 July 2025. The claim has two parts: (a) US real estate, bonds and stocks were all in bubble territory at once, and (b) this had never happened before in US history. Bubble territory means valuations at historical extremes on standard measures (e.g. Grantham's 2-sigma above-trend definition, CAPE, house price-to-income ratios, bond yields far below historical norms). True: all three met such a standard in July 2025, and no earlier period did so at the same time. Mostly true: both parts hold but one market sat just at the edge of the threshold. Mixed: all three were extreme but there was an earlier episode of the same (including the 2021-22 episode Grantham himself described as an 'everything bubble'), or only two of the three were extreme. Mostly false: only one market was clearly at bubble levels. False: valuations in most or all three markets were not historically extreme in July 2025 (e.g. bond yields at or above historical norms).

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Bubble Indicator: Is the Stock Market Overheating? Visual Capitalist · 14 February 2025

   “In December 2024, the S&P 500 CAPE ratio stood at 37.9—well above its long-term average of 17.6. Notably, it has only exceeded this level during the Dot-Com bubble and in 2021.”

2. E2 [PDF] Key Facts Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies · 24 June 2025

   “In 2024, the price-to-income ratio hit 5.0, on par with the record highs reached in 2022 and well above the prepandemic reading of 4.1 in 2019 (Figure 6 & Interactive).”

3. E3 Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

   “| 2025-07-01 | 4.39 |”

4. E4 Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

   “| 2021-05-01 | 1.62 |”

The evidence shows extreme stock and housing valuations in 2024 [E1][E2] and a July 2025 10-year yield of 4.39% [E3], but it does not place that yield against historical norms, so whether the bond market was at bubble levels is not settled. It also does not show all three markets extreme at the same earlier time, so neither path to the verdict is established.