ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“the lowest rates in the history of man,”

Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)

Factual Economics and markets

Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The test is the date of the claim, 28 July 2025, with the proposition taken as stated: bonds currently, at that date, offer the lowest interest rates in human history. TRUE if benchmark government bond yields in major markets (e.g. US Treasuries, German Bunds) were at or very near all-time historical lows as of July 2025. MOSTLY TRUE if yields were within a small margin of record lows in the main markets. MOSTLY FALSE if yields in July 2025 were well above record lows, but the statement rests on a true recent episode (the record lows of 2020–2021) wrongly presented as current, or applies only to a narrow market. FALSE if benchmark yields in July 2025 were clearly and substantially above their historical lows (e.g. US 10-year far above its 2020 low of about 0.5%) and no such current record lows existed in any major market.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Monthly Market Wrap: July 2025 - YCharts YCharts · 4 August 2025

    “Equities rose to kick off H2 2025, existing home prices hit a record, and Treasury yields climbed across the curve.”

  2. E2 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)

    “2025-06,4.38 2025-07,4.39 2025-08,4.26”

  3. E3 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)

    “2020-06,0.73 2020-07,0.62 2020-08,0.65”

Reasoning

The Federal Reserve H.15 10-year series puts the July 2025 monthly yield at 4.39 [E2], against 0.62 in July 2020 [E3]. That is several times above the recent low. YCharts reports that Treasury yields rose across the curve in July 2025 [E1]. So, at least for US Treasuries, the claim of history's lowest rates does not hold for July 2025. The evidence does fit a true earlier episode, the 2020 lows, presented as current, which the criteria class as mostly false. The evidence covers only US Treasuries, so it cannot rule out record lows in another major market such as German Bunds, which the criteria require for a plain false.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_663a44e56f2e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_663a44e56f2e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”

    Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels.

  2. Mostly true Factual 28 July 2025
    “one of the two or three lowest relative points in history”

    Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S.

  3. Mostly true Factual 5 July 2023
    “Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”

    Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated.

  4. Mixed Factual January 2023
    “in 1974 the market did turn up, after a horrific 62% real decline in two years, exactly”

    In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place.

  5. Mostly true Factual January 2023
    “GMO has a strategy called Equity Dislocation, which goes long the very cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, and which delivered a respectable double-digit positive…”

    GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.