ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“Now we have, since ChatGPT and October and November last year, we have a new little flurry of interest that is very concentrated.”

Jeremy Grantham, investor, in WealthTrack interview 5 July 2023 Jeremy Grantham predicts stock crash (Fortune) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of July 2023. True: market data or reporting shows a marked rise in investor interest in AI after ChatGPT's release (30 November 2022), such as rallies in AI-linked stocks, inflows or mentions of AI on earnings calls. The interest must also have been concentrated in a small number of stocks, such as Nvidia and a few mega-cap tech firms. Mostly true: both hold, but the timing is slightly off. For example, the surge began only in early 2023, or the 'October' reference is inaccurate given the November launch. Mixed: the surge in interest was real but broad rather than concentrated. Mostly false: interest rose only modestly and was spread widely. False: no notable rise in AI-related market interest occurred.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Microsoft Word - Earnings_Insight_052623.docx FactSet Research Systems (Earnings Insight, John Butters) · 26 May 2023

    “Of these companies, 110 cited the term “AI” during their earnings call for the first quarter. This number is well above the 5year average of 57 and the 10-year average of 34.”

  2. E2 MIKE DOLAN: The deceptive breadth of 2023’s equity rally BusinessDay (Reuters column by Mike Dolan) · 5 July 2023

    “The central charge is that an equal-weight version of the S&P 500 — a proxy for the average stock that assigns equal weight to each one regardless of company size — has gained only about 6%.”

  3. E3 Q2 2023 Commentary | Sextant Funds | Saturna Capital Saturna Capital (Sextant Funds) · 11 April 2023

    “Together these stocks account for 30% of the S&P 500 Index's market capitalization, up from 22% at the start of the year.”

  4. E4 [PDF] Charting AI's Journey Through Earnings Transcripts PEAK Wealth Management · March 2024

    “The number of mentions doubled to 45 in Q1 2023, the quarter after ChatGPT’s release.”

Reasoning

E1 reports that 110 companies mentioned "AI" on Q1 2023 earnings calls, well above the 5-year average of 57 and the 10-year average of 34. E4 says AI mentions doubled in Q1 2023, the quarter after ChatGPT's release. Together they show a marked rise in AI-related market interest. On concentration, E2 says the equal-weight S&P 500 gained only about 6%, which its title presents as evidence of a narrow 2023 rally, and E3 says a group of stocks grew from 22% to 30% of the index's market value this year. Neither quote names the stocks or links the gains directly to AI, so the concentration evidence is indirect. ChatGPT launched on 30 November 2022, so if the 'October' reference refers to the launch it is slightly early, and the claim is rated mostly true rather than fully true.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated.” (said 5 July 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_fe8c782d4c72, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fe8c782d4c72

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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