Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 63 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
56 46 67 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeremy Grantham's claims
“the lowest rates in the history of man,”
Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)
Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The test is the date of the claim, 28 July 2025, with the proposition taken as stated: bonds currently, at that date, offer the lowest interest rates in human history. TRUE if benchmark government bond yields in major markets (e.g. US Treasuries, German Bunds) were at or very near all-time historical lows as of July 2025. MOSTLY TRUE if yields were within a small margin of record lows in the main markets. MOSTLY FALSE if yields in July 2025 were well above record lows, but the statement rests on a true recent episode (the record lows of 2020–2021) wrongly presented as current, or applies only to a narrow market. FALSE if benchmark yields in July 2025 were clearly and substantially above their historical lows (e.g. US 10-year far above its 2020 low of about 0.5%) and no such current record lows existed in any major market.
Evidence
- Monthly Market Wrap: July 2025 - YCharts YCharts · 4 August 2025
“Equities rose to kick off H2 2025, existing home prices hit a record, and Treasury yields climbed across the curve.”
- 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)
“2025-06,4.38 2025-07,4.39 2025-08,4.26”
- 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)
“2020-06,0.73 2020-07,0.62 2020-08,0.65”
Reasoning
The Federal Reserve H.15 10-year series puts the July 2025 monthly yield at 4.39 [E2], against 0.62 in July 2020 [E3]. That is several times above the recent low. YCharts reports that Treasury yields rose across the curve in July 2025 [E1]. So, at least for US Treasuries, the claim of history's lowest rates does not hold for July 2025. The evidence does fit a true earlier episode, the 2020 lows, presented as current, which the criteria class as mostly false. The evidence covers only US Treasuries, so it cannot rule out record lows in another major market such as German Bunds, which the criteria require for a plain false.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_663a44e56f2e, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_663a44e56f2e
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 148
- Not yet due 17
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 194
- Not checkable 543
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