A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim gives no horizon. It is judged over the roughly one-year period Grantham's January 2023 letter addressed, through 31 December 2023, using the S&P 500 as the main measure of 'the market'. The claim is a strongly leaning probabilistic forecast ('much more likely than not') of a continued, substantial decline. TRUE if, by end-2023, the S&P 500 fell below its October 2022 bear-market low (about 3,577 close) or fell at least 15% below its early-January 2023 level. MOSTLY TRUE if the decline met that threshold but bottomed a little later (in early 2024), or if the drawdown was roughly 12–15%. MIXED if the market fell meaningfully (about 8–12%) but did not continue the bear market. MOSTLY FALSE if the only declines were minor (under about 8%) while the market ended 2023 near or modestly above its January level. FALSE if there was no meaningful decline and the S&P 500 ended 2023 substantially higher than in January 2023.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 2023 Charts of the Year | Resolute Wealth Management Resolute Wealth Management · 4 January 2024
“The simple summary of the stock market in 2023 is a continuation of the rally that began mid-October 2022.”
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E2 2023 Charts of the Year | Resolute Wealth Management Resolute Wealth Management · 4 January 2024
“The S&P 500 saw a 9.81% decline from August through October, just 0.19% away from an official 10% correction.”
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E3 2023 Charts of the Year | Resolute Wealth Management Resolute Wealth Management · 4 January 2024
“Investors who were scared out of the market’s 9.81% three-month decline from August - October missed a 16.23% rally to year end that began on October 27th.”
Reasoning
E1 describes the 2023 stock market as a continuation of the rally that began in mid-October 2022, so the bear market did not continue. That rules out TRUE, since nothing shows a break below the October 2022 low or a 15% fall from early-January levels. E2 and E3 report a 9.81% S&P 500 decline from August to October 2023, followed by a 16.23% rally to year end. Read as written, the criteria place a meaningful 8–12% decline without a continued bear market in the MIXED band. However, that decline was measured from an August peak, and nothing here shows the market fell well below its January level.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.” (said January 2023). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_380ee5a4a2b3, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_380ee5a4a2b3
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
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Mostly false
“sometime during that depressed phase P/E ratios will also be pulled down as is typical, giving us a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.