Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
72 63 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
56 46 67 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeremy Grantham's claims
33 claims
“31 years later, the land is not back, and stocks are not back.”
Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)
Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge the claim at about 31 years after the 1989 peaks, meaning about 2020–2021, not at the date it was said. True: in that period the Nikkei 225 (or TOPIX) and Japanese land price indices (e.g., the six-major-city commercial or residential land price index, or official land price surveys) were both still below their 1989–1991 peaks. Mostly true: both were below their peaks, but the stated span is off by a year or two. Mixed: one had recovered to its peak and the other had not. False: both had regained their peak levels by then. A Nikkei recovery after 2021, such as surpassing the 1989 high in 2024, does not change the verdict.
Evidence
- Nikkei 225 Total Return hitting a record high | Global Services | Nikkei Inc. Nikkei Inc. · 22 October 2021
“The Nikkei 225 is at 70% of its highest price level ever, which was 38,915 yen at the end of 1989.”
- Nikkei 225 Total Return hitting a record high | Global Services | Nikkei Inc. Nikkei Inc. · 22 October 2021
“However, the dividend-included index reached its highest price ever in February 2021, surpassing all previous highs during the 31 years since the end of the bubble period.”
- 2 Ideas to Follow Warren Buffett’s Bet on Japanese Stocks Cabot Wealth · 13 October 2020
“Japan’s benchmark index, the TOPIX (short-hand for “Tokyo Stock Price Index”), still sits about 40% below its 1989 peak.”
- Fiscal Year 2020 Trends Concerning Land Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Japan) · June 2021
“According to the publication of value of standard sites by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, with regard to trends in land prices as of January 1, 2021, the national average volatility for all uses fell for the first time in six years since 2015.”
- Land Investment by Japanese Firms during and after the Bubble Period Bank of Japan (Working Paper Series No.04-E-2, by Toshitaka Sekine and Towa Tachibana) · March 2004
“The average land price in 2002 was less than 30% level of its peak in 1990,”
- Land Investment by Japanese Firms during and after the Bubble Period Bank of Japan (Working Paper Series No.04-E-2, by Toshitaka Sekine and Towa Tachibana) · March 2004
“while the average share price was less than 35% of its peak in 1989.”
- History of Japanese Market Nikkei Indexes (Nikkei Inc.) · 10 March 2000
“In the last months of the year, prices moved up even faster and ended 1989 at a record high 38,915 yen.”
- The Showa Bubble vs. the Reiwa Era: How Have Land Prices Changed? — A 60-Year History of Japanese Land Prices in Numbers note.com (individual blog post by dorakue37) · 5 July 2026
“Ginza's land price, which was 31.5 million yen/m² at the 1991 bubble peak, had already reached 37.65 million yen/m² by 2019, exceeding the bubble era levels.”
Reasoning
The stock half is settled directly. In 2020 the TOPIX was still about 40% below its 1989 peak (E3), and in October 2021 the Nikkei 225 was at 70% of its 38,915-yen high from the end of 1989 (E1, E7). Only the dividend-included total-return index set a new record (E2). The land half rests on inference, because no source gives a national index level for 2020–2021: average land prices were below 30% of their 1990 peak in 2002 (E5), and the official survey reports a national decline in 2021 after a run of gains since 2015 (E4). A blog post says Ginza prices passed their 1991 peak by 2019 (E8), but that is one location and not a national index, so the evidence points to both still being below their peaks, with the land part less directly shown.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_839b6b24b354, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_839b6b24b354
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 148
- Not yet due 17
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 194
- Not checkable 543
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