Jeremy Grantham

Factual · Their own work or organisation

“The tone of the market commentators back in January, when I was writing my last quarterly letter, seemed much too pessimistic on global stock markets, particularly the U.S. market, and I said so.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder · January 2016 · 1Q 2016 GMO Quarterly Letter: Keeping the Faith (GMO via investmentofficer.nl)

In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

This is a factual claim about Grantham's own earlier writing: that in his previous quarterly letter, written in January, he said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, particularly the US. TRUE if that previous GMO quarterly letter, written in or dated January, says commentators or the consensus were too pessimistic on global stocks, with the US singled out. MOSTLY TRUE if the letter makes that point but the timing differs slightly (e.g. written in late December or early February), or the US is not explicitly singled out. MOSTLY FALSE if the letter only hinted at the view, e.g. noted pessimism without saying it was excessive. FALSE if the letter shows he agreed with or amplified the pessimism, or did not address commentators' tone at all.

Evidence

1. Jeremy Grantham: Ultra-low Resource Prices Are Not Sustainable, U.S. Equity Bubble Update hedgefundalpha.com · 4 February 2016 Own record

   “Looking to 2016, we can agree that uncertainties are above average. But I think the global economy and the U.S. in particular will do better than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate the slow-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and the availability of capacity both in labor and machinery.”

2. Jeremy Grantham: Ultra-low Resource Prices Are Not Sustainable, U.S. Equity Bubble Update hedgefundalpha.com · 4 February 2016 Own record

   “The U.S. and global economies are likely to do significantly better this year than recent opinions predict.”

3. Jeremy Grantham: Ultra-low Resource Prices Are Not Sustainable, U.S. Equity Bubble Update hedgefundalpha.com · 4 February 2016 Own record

   “So the bears can claim this one, although I think with an asterisk because the market was not really going up last year”

Reasoning

The previous quarterly letter, reproduced on 2016-02-04, says the global economy "and the U.S. in particular will do better than the bears believe" (E1). It also says the US and global economies are likely to do significantly better than recent opinions predict (E2). So the letter does say the pessimists were too gloomy and singles out the US, but its point is about economies rather than stock markets. On the bubble question it also concedes a point to the bears (E3). That makes this a close but not exact match to the claim, so it resolves mostly true.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S.” (said January 2016). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_3c0313f30c19, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3c0313f30c19