Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“The first-place winning entry will receive $20,000, the runner-up will receive $10,000, and the honorable mention will receive $5,000.”
GiveWell, unsigned organisational page 6 April 2022 GiveWell's Change Our Mind Contest (GiveWell)
GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest.
Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: GiveWell awarded $20,000 to a first-place entry, $10,000 to a runner-up and $5,000 to an honorable mention (if it chose to award more or split prizes, the announced amounts at least matched these for the specified places). Mostly true: prizes were awarded at these levels with a minor deviation in structure (e.g., ties splitting a place's amount). Mostly false: only some of the three prizes were awarded, or at materially lower amounts. False: GiveWell announced no such prizes or cancelled the awards. Evidence must be GiveWell's results announcement or winners' confirmation stating amounts.
Evidence
- The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“Because we were impressed by the quality of entries, we’ve decided to award two first-place prizes and eight honorable mentions. (We stated in September that we would give a minimum of one first-place, one runner-up, and one honorable mention prize.)”
- The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“Honorable mentions – $5,000 each”
- The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“Because they are similarly excellent, we are naming two winners rather than one winner and one runner-up.”
- EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22') — EA Forum EA Forum · 20 December 2022
“They assigned two first place winners due to the quality of submissions, in addition to 8 honorable mentions, and $500 prizes for all others of the 49 entries meeting contest criteria.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's results announcement of 2022-12-15 lists two first-place prizes of $20,000 each and eight honorable mentions of $5,000 each (E1, E2). It says the second first-place winner was named instead of a runner-up, so the entry in the runner-up position received $20,000 rather than $10,000 (E3). The criteria count awarding more as meeting the promise if the amounts at least match each place, and these amounts meet or exceed the promised levels. An independent forum summary confirms the two first-place winners and eight honorable mentions (E4), and the announcement fell on the deadline date.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_f52acdb05bcf, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f52acdb05bcf
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.