ClaimsPeople

GiveWell

GiveWell is a US-based nonprofit charity evaluator that researches and recommends high-impact giving opportunities, mainly in global health and poverty reduction.

190 claims collected, 76 researched, 23 resolved. Report of 10 October 2026, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 63 88

    Medium confidence, 15 factual claims resolved. From 7 documents, 2010 to 2026; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 13 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 5 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    70 52 87

    Low confidence, 7 promises resolved. From 3 documents, 2010 to 2022; 8 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

GiveWell's claims

190 claims · page 1 of 2

190 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not researched Factual 30 Sep 2026 Using 2024 under-5 mortality rates of 40.8 for low- and middle-income countries and 5.1 for high-income countries, matching the high-income rate would avert 87.5% of child deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Science and research methods
Not researched Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell has tested AI as a tool to increase its research capacity and quality. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 AI capabilities
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 That increased capacity lets us explore more areas and move more funding to programs we believe could do extraordinary good. Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Not yet due Prediction 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2026 The three Senior Communications Officer roles will be the first of their kind at GiveWell. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Field building and careers
Not researched Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell has already directed over $600 million in 2026 to help people in need. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2026 Gaps in the global supply of family planning products are large and growing, and GiveWell expects its funding to make more contraceptives available to people who want them. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Own records only Factual 30 Sep 2026 Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 30 Sep 2026 The UNFPA Supplies Partnership grant is GiveWell's first grant through a pooled fund. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 30 Sep 2026 In 2025, GiveWell raised $616 million and directed $427 million to programs in 32 countries. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 Despite the growth of our grantmaking, the needs and opportunities before us continue to far exceed available resources. Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's Cross-Cutting research subteam investigates the impact of funded programs, works to resolve the largest uncertainties, and strengthens data collection and analysis. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 30 Sep 2026 Our grantmaking aims to support programs that save or improve lives the most per dollar. Not checkable · 30 Sep 2026
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2026 More than four million children under five die each year in low- and middle-income countries, and most of those deaths are preventable. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2026 The programs GiveWell funded with 2025 donations will save about 86,000 lives in total. Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Citation 30 Sep 2026 The United Nations estimates that 165 million women aged 15 to 49 worldwide have an unmet need for family planning. Citation · 30 Sep 2026 Biosecurity
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 Around 95% of funds GiveWell raised in 2025 were donations left to GiveWell to allocate rather than restricted to a particular organization, higher than any previous year. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell raised more money in 2025 than in any previous year, and donations to each of its giving funds (All Grants, Top Charities, Unrestricted) were also higher than in any previous year. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell responded in 2025 to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2026 global needs still far exceed available resources. Not checkable · 31 Aug 2026
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 If under-five children in low- and middle-income countries died at the high-income-country child mortality rate, 87.5% of their deaths would be averted (5.1 / 40.8 = 12.5% remaining). Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Science and research methods
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2026 We believe this effort to uncover new, cost-effective ways to save and improve lives will enable us to do even more good in future years. Not checkable · 31 Aug 2026
Unresolvable Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell has spent years growing its research capacity and scope to direct significantly more funding to the most impactful opportunities, and 2025 was a milestone in that growth. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2026 Around $124 million (29% of funds directed) in 2025 went to GiveWell's four Top Charities. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell's 86,000 lives-saved estimate covers only the 2025 grants that had reduced mortality as a primary outcome. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2026 In 2025 GiveWell directed around $427 million to high-impact programs and organizations, an 8% increase in funds directed compared to 2024. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 Most donors who give via GiveWell rely on GiveWell to allocate their donation rather than restricting it to a particular organization. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell directed $427 million to opportunities in 32 countries in metrics year 2025. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 31 Aug 2026 Our growing research capacity meant that we could find a broader array of highly impactful programs. Not checkable · 31 Aug 2026
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell raised $616 million in metrics year 2025 (February 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026), an increase of 49% from 2024. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 31 Aug 2026 More than four million children under five die each year in low- and middle-income countries, and most of those deaths are preventable. Factual · 31 Aug 2026 Biosecurity
Own records only Promise 6 Apr 2022 Each contest entry will be reviewed by at least one GiveWell researcher with substantial experience with its cost-effectiveness analyses. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will publish winning contest entries online, anonymously if requested. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 Roughly, a critique should imply at least a 10% change to our bottom-line cost-effectiveness estimate for a given program. Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 Despite the effort we put into these analyses, we believe it's very possible that we're missing important considerations or making mistakes… Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Resolved true Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 A mix of empirical evidence, interpretation, and intuition is acceptable; we recognize that our cost-effectiveness analyses are in part… Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Unresolvable Factual 6 Apr 2022 Each of the six listed analyses relates to a program to which GiveWell has directed substantial funding (generally tens of millions of dollars) and which it intends to consider for substantial future funding. Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Citation 6 Apr 2022 A post by the Happier Lives Institute proposes a different approach to modeling the long-term benefits of deworming programs and is a strong critique meeting the contest criteria. Citation · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 We're running this contest because the recommendation decisions we make are extremely important, and we want to incentivize feedback that… Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Not researched Factual 6 Apr 2022 For each program it evaluates, GiveWell creates a cost-effectiveness analysis estimating how much good donations to that program will do. Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Excellent contest entries may lead to changes in how GiveWell allocates millions of dollars of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Delivered on time Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will give a $500 participation prize to other qualifying entries, capped at 50 prizes for the first 50 submissions. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Most strong contest entries will focus on one of the six listed programs. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Factual 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 Any individual may submit up to three entries (including any co-authored entries); if one individual submits multiple entries, those… Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Mostly true Factual 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available. Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Delivered on time Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest. Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Apr 2022 Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding. Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 6 Apr 2022 Cost-effectiveness is the single most important input in our decisions about what programs to recommend. Not checkable · 6 Apr 2022
Mostly true Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell shares its plans for the year each spring. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell staff may work remotely and GiveWell accommodates flexible work schedules, including flexible hours. Factual · 28 May 2020 Field building and careers
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 Many of GiveWell's successful past hires came through the community of people who engage with its work. Factual · 28 May 2020 Field building and careers
Mostly false Promise 28 May 2020 GiveWell hopes to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities in 2020, most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, but may have limited capacity due to COVID-19 work. Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's investigation of a potential alcohol policy grant was delayed because the potential grantee shifted its focus to COVID-19 response. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 May 2020 GiveWell will make additional COVID-19 response grants if it believes they are more cost-effective than the opportunities to which it would otherwise direct funds. Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 28 May 2020 we think that we should be open to making grants in a lower-information environment due to the potentially severe consequences of the… Not checkable · 28 May 2020
Resolved true Factual 28 May 2020 As of 28 May 2020, GiveWell had made three grants for COVID-19 mitigation. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell significantly expanded its research team in 2019. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 28 May 2020 Much of GiveWell's work in 2020 will go forward as anticipated. Prediction · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell made limited progress in 2019 in assessing public health regulation, a relatively new domain for it. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 28 May 2020 Here, we highlight the work we plan to do in 2020 that is most likely to help us realize our mission of identifying and directing funding… Not checkable · 28 May 2020
Not checkable Not checkable 28 May 2020 acting sooner may be more impactful in preventing the spread of the disease. Not checkable · 28 May 2020
Own records only Promise 28 May 2020 After completing its alcohol policy grant investigation, GiveWell will reflect on what it has learned about public health regulation before deciding whether to do additional work in this area. Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 The GiveWell post on 2020 plans does not include a complete accounting of everything GiveWell plans to do in 2020. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's plans laid out internally at the beginning of 2020 were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 In early 2020 GiveWell conducted research that led it to prioritize alcohol policy and pesticide suicide prevention and to deprioritize air pollution, tobacco and road safety. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 28 May 2020 We aim to grow the GiveWell donor community in 2020. Not checkable · 28 May 2020
Resolved true Factual 28 May 2020 Dispensers for Safe Water is a GiveWell standout charity. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's research process starts with shallow reviews of many programs, followed by in-depth reviews of the most promising. Factual · 28 May 2020 Science and research methods
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell's marketing team is examining how users engage with the GiveWell website and where they may become confused or misinterpret its work. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell has paused work on public health regulation as of May 2020. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 28 May 2020 New Incentives is a GiveWell Incubation Grant recipient, and the study of its work, funded by another GiveWell Incubation Grant, is the first RCT into which GiveWell has had significant input. Factual · 28 May 2020 Science and research methods
Own records only Factual 28 May 2020 GiveWell does not typically focus on high-uncertainty, short-timeline reviews of funding opportunities. Factual · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 May 2020 In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 28 May 2020 The plans we share in this post take the pandemic into account, but we are more uncertain than usual about what will happen in 2020. Not checkable · 28 May 2020
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell's total expenses in 2016 were $5.5 million. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 "Reallocated" means that the donors said that in GiveWell's absence, they would have given the same amount but to different organizations. Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable Factual 2018 Among donors who gave in 2015, about 35% gave again in 2016, down from about 40% who gave again in 2015. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 The categorization required some judgment calls. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 On the other hand, we expect that most donations that we count in our money moved are the result of a complex decision making process… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell raised $5.6 million in unrestricted funding in 2016, compared to $5.1 million in 2015. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 All GiveWell Incubation Grants to date have been made by Good Ventures on GiveWell's recommendation. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell's research played a significant role in the decisions of The Life You Can Save and Giving What We Can, which make or made charity recommendations and have cited its research. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 The major institutional supporters and the five largest individual donors contributed about 70% of GiveWell's operational funding in 2016. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 "Mostly rely on recommendations" includes anyone who answered that that was how they engaged with GiveWell. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 "Just beginning to give" means that they did not feel they could accurately answer the question because they were just starting to give as… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell did not conduct a major donor survey for its 2016 metrics report. Factual · 2018 Science and research methods
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell asks donors what impact it has on the amount they give and the organizations they give to. Factual · 2018 Science and research methods
Not researched Factual 2018 GiveWell's seven top charities received the majority of its money moved in 2016. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 As of June 2017, GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project became separate organizations. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 Generally, "high engagement" includes anyone who answered that they read the website "carefully," read the blog "regularly," attend events… Not checkable · 2018
Own records only Factual 2018 If GiveWell influenced the same proportion of unattributed donations as attributed ones, it would have influenced an additional $20 million not in its headline money moved figure. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 In 2016, unique visitors to GiveWell's website excluding AdWords decreased by 8% compared to 2015. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 GiveWell is dedicated to finding outstanding giving opportunities and publishing the full details of our analysis. Not checkable · 2018
Back to the list

GiveWell

Open its page

Factual Science and research methods

“If children under five in low- and middle-income countries were to die at the child mortality rate of high-income countries rather than at their current rate, representing the potential effect of high-income country conditions existing across low- and middle-income countries, 87.5% of child deaths in low- and middle-income countries would be averted”

GiveWell, unsigned newsletter footnote 30 September 2026 September 2026 Updates (The GiveWell Blog)

Using 2024 under-5 mortality rates of 40.8 for low- and middle-income countries and 5.1 for high-income countries, matching the high-income rate would avert 87.5% of child deaths in low- and middle-income countries.

Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “Using 2024 under-5 mortality rates of 40.8 for low- and middle-income countries and 5.1 for high-income countries, matching the high-income rate would avert 87.5% of child deaths in low- and middle-income countries.” (said 30 September 2026). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_1589ef7f01bb, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1589ef7f01bb

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.