Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“That was our largest fundraising year to date, and we’re now preparing for the potential of a future at a substantially larger scale.”
GiveWell, unsigned newsletter 30 September 2026 September 2026 Updates (The GiveWell Blog)
GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: GiveWell's 2025 fundraising was about $616 million (±2%) and exceeded every prior year's total. Mostly true: 2025 was the largest year, but the amount differs by about 2–10%. Mixed: the amount is roughly right but a prior year was comparable or larger by some metric, or the reverse. Mostly false: 2025 was not the largest year and the amount is off. False: 2025 was clearly below a prior year and far from $616M.
Evidence
- Metrics Report 2025 - files.givewell.org GiveWell · 10 September 2026 Own record
“We raised more money in 2025 than we have during any previous year, and that was also true for each of our Giving Funds: All Grants Fund, Top Charities Fund, and Unrestricted Fund.”
- GiveWell's 2022 metrics report - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 22 December 2023 Own record
“In 2022, the most recent year for which data is available and analyzed, GiveWell raised the largest amount of money in our history, over $600 million.”
- GiveWell's 2024 Metrics and Impact - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 13 August 2025 Own record
“While we raised more money in 2024 than 2023, we raised less than in the previous two years due to high funding from Open Philanthropy during that time.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's 2025 metrics report gives total funds raised of $616,380,029 in 2025 and says this exceeded every previous year (E1). Earlier reports published years before give lower totals for prior peak years: $602.9M in 2022 and $595.5M in 2021 (E2), and about $415M in 2024 and $355M in 2023 (E3). All of these sources come from GiveWell itself, but they are specific, consistent published records from different years, and they show 2025 as the highest year, though only about 2% above 2022.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “GiveWell's 2025 fundraising of $616 million was its largest fundraising year to date.” (said 30 September 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d1ae0bd0e8df, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d1ae0bd0e8df
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.