Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“We responded to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts”
GiveWell 31 August 2026 GiveWell's 2025 Metrics and Impact (The GiveWell Blog)
GiveWell responded in 2025 to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: in 2025 GiveWell made grants or funding decisions explicitly aimed at needs created by foreign aid cuts (for example the US aid reductions of 2025), as shown by grant records or published descriptions of specific funded responses, not only GiveWell's own summary. Mostly true: such responses occurred, with minor inaccuracies in timing or detail. Mixed is not normally applicable. Mostly false: GiveWell only discussed or planned a response, with little or no actual funding in 2025. False: records show no such response in 2025.
Evidence
- Our Approach to Foreign Aid Cuts GiveWell · 5 March 2025 Own record
“So far, we have approved grants totaling around $53 million in direct response to the 2025 cuts to foreign aid spending. You can find a summary of them below.”
- Short-Term SMC Campaign Gaps in Guinea, Mali, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, and Benin (April 2025) GiveWell · May 2025 Own record
“In April 2025, GiveWell recommended approximately $3.2 million in recoverable grants and funding reallocations to six implementing partners to fund pre-campaign activities for seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) campaigns in Guinea, Mali, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, and Benin.”
- Metrics Report 2025 - files.givewell.org GiveWell · 10 September 2026 Own record
“In our 2025 metrics year, we approved 25 grants totaling $53 million4 to directly address urgent needs created by the cuts, though most of our research and the programs we fund were affected in some way.”
- GiveWell, Growing Needs, Shrinking Aid Webinar Transcript, December 4, 2025 GiveWell · 29 May 2026 Own record
“This year, we've directed about $40 million in direct response to these cuts. That's just been a part of what we've done.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's grant page [E2] documents roughly $3.2 million in April 2025 grants to six named implementing partners for seasonal malaria chemoprevention campaigns, explicitly tied to US government funding cuts. [E1] lists further specific grants, including Concern Worldwide in Somalia and ALIMA in Cameroon, described as direct responses to the 2025 aid cuts. The December 2025 webinar [E4] gives about $40 million directed by then, which differs from the later $53 million total but still supports funding in 2025. All sources come from GiveWell itself, but they are specific grant records with named recipients and amounts, which the criteria accept; E3 is dated after the judgment date and was not relied on.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “GiveWell responded in 2025 to urgent needs generated by foreign aid cuts.” (said 31 August 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_08f33b084fc9, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_08f33b084fc9
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.