Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in “money moved” to our recommended charities.”
GiveWell, unsigned metrics report 2015 GiveWell Metrics Report – 2014 Annual Review (GiveWell)
In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in money moved to its recommended charities.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True: GiveWell's 2014 money-moved figure for recommended charities is $27.8 million (rounding of ±$0.05M is acceptable). Mostly true: the figure is within about 5% of $27.8M. Mixed: within about 5–15%. Mostly false: off by about 15–30%. False: off by more than 30%, or no money-moved figure was tracked for 2014.
Evidence
- GiveWell’s money moved and web traffic in 2014 - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell Blog (givewell.org) · 13 April 2015 Own record
“In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in money moved to our recommended charities, about 60% more than in 2013. This total includes $14.8 million from Good Ventures (up from $9.3 million) and $13.0 million from other donors (up from $8.2 million).”
- GiveWell’s money moved and web traffic in 2014 - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell Blog (givewell.org) · 13 April 2015 Own record
“Our four top charities received the majority of the $28.1 million tracked to our recommended charities.”
- GiveWell's progress in 2014 and plans for 2015: Summary - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell Blog (givewell.org) · 3 March 2015 Own record
“Money moved to our top charities was ~$28 million, compared to ~$17 million in 2013.”
- December 2014 update on GiveWell's funding needs - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell Blog (givewell.org) · 29 December 2014 Own record
“We anticipate 2014 money moved to top charities of approximately $25 million and project expenses in 2015 of $2.27 million.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's 2014 metrics report states $27.8 million in money moved to recommended charities, split into $14.8M from Good Ventures and $13.0M from other donors [E1]. The same post also cites $28.1 million tracked to recommended charities [E2], and an earlier summary gives about $28 million [E3]. All figures are within about 1% of the claim, but every source comes from GiveWell itself and they are not fully consistent, so the claim is rated mostly true rather than true.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in money moved to its recommended charities.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_0cf95af24a5d, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0cf95af24a5d
Claims without a verdict
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