Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 63 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
70 52 87
All types combined: 74 (likely 64 to 84, medium confidence), from 22 claims: 15 factual claims, 7 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
GiveWell's claims
“In 2014, we recommended and Good Ventures made two grants towards this end: $250,000 to Evidence Action to scale evidence-backed programs and about $34,000 to IDinsight to propose impact evaluations it could conduct.”
GiveWell, unsigned metrics report 2015 GiveWell Metrics Report – 2014 Annual Review (GiveWell)
In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: records show that in 2014 Good Ventures, on GiveWell's recommendation, granted $250,000 to Evidence Action and roughly $30,000–$38,000 to IDinsight. Mostly true: both grants occurred but one amount is modestly off or the timing straddles the year boundary. Mixed: only one of the two grants matches. Mostly false: the grants happened in a different year or with substantially different amounts. False: neither grant occurred as described.
Evidence
- Evidence Action — Future Programs (No Lean Season) GiveWell · October 2015 Own record
“In March 2014, Good Ventures made a $250,000 grant to Evidence Action to support the investigation and possible scale-up of promising programs.”
- GiveWell's Experimental Work – November 2016 version GiveWell · November 2016 Own record
“IDinsight—Scaling Up a High-Potential Development Intervention | IDinsight | $34,382 | September 2014”
- GiveWell's Experimental Work – November 2016 version GiveWell · November 2016 Own record
“Evidence Action—Future Programs (No Lean Season) | Evidence Action | $250,000 and $170,792 | March 2014 and March 2015”
Reasoning
GiveWell's grant page records a $250,000 Good Ventures grant to Evidence Action in March 2014 [E1], and its experimental-work table lists the same grant [E3]. The same table lists a $34,382 Good Ventures grant to IDinsight dated September 2014 [E2], within the criteria's range. Both records come from GiveWell rather than an independent source, but they are specific dated grant records rather than general restatements. The IDinsight grant's listed title differs somewhat from the claim's description of its purpose, which does not affect the amount or year.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight.” (said 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d20e85db5d3d, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d20e85db5d3d
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for GiveWell? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.