Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
GiveWell and Ørsted are left out of this table: their reports were made in October 2026 with an older method, and they are not part of the cohort of public figures.
Of the 435 pairs of ranked people, 412 have overlapping ranges: neighbouring ranks are not reliably in that order.
| Rank | Person | Score | 80% range | Resolved | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warren Buffett | 85 | 79 to 91 | 51 | High |
| 2 | Jeff Bezos | 84 | 79 to 88 | 90 | High |
| 3 | Daniela Amodei | 83 | 78 to 88 | 86 | High |
| 3 | Rodney Brooks | 83 | 77 to 88 | 79 | High |
| 3 | Sam Altman | 83 | 77 to 88 | 77 | High |
| 3 | Satya Nadella | 83 | 77 to 88 | 77 | High |
| 7 | Nate Silver | 82 | 76 to 88 | 63 | High |
| 8 | Demis Hassabis | 81 | 76 to 87 | 78 | High |
| 9 | Mark Zuckerberg | 80 | 74 to 86 | 70 | High |
| 9 | Scott Alexander | 80 | 72 to 88 | 35 | Medium |
| 9 | Tyler Cowen | 80 | 75 to 85 | 93 | High |
| 12 | Gary Marcus | 79 | 72 to 85 | 64 | High |
| 13 | Yann LeCun | 78 | 72 to 83 | 79 | High |
| 14 | Bill Gates | 77 | 71 to 83 | 79 | High |
| 14 | Ray Dalio | 77 | 71 to 83 | 80 | High |
| 16 | Bill Ackman | 76 | 70 to 81 | 82 | High |
| 16 | Dario Amodei | 76 | 69 to 82 | 76 | High |
| 16 | Eliezer Yudkowsky | 76 | 70 to 82 | 71 | High |
| 19 | Michael Burry | 74 | 67 to 80 | 66 | High |
| 19 | Steven Pinker | 74 | 68 to 79 | 97 | High |
| 21 | Nassim Taleb | 73 | 67 to 79 | 94 | High |
| 22 | Balaji Srinivasan | 72 | 65 to 79 | 60 | High |
| 22 | Jensen Huang | 72 | 67 to 78 | 101 | High |
| 22 | Jeremy Grantham | 72 | 63 to 80 | 42 | Medium |
| 22 | Nouriel Roubini | 72 | 64 to 80 | 48 | Medium |
| 22 | Vinod Khosla | 72 | 64 to 80 | 43 | Medium |
| 27 | Peter Thiel | 71 | 64 to 78 | 55 | Medium |
| 28 | Elon Musk | 70 | 61 to 80 | 35 | Medium |
| 29 | Ray Kurzweil | 68 | 61 to 75 | 69 | High |
| 30 | Marc Andreessen | 67 | 61 to 73 | 94 | High |
Not ranked: low confidence
| Person | Score | 80% range | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Cramer | 75 | 61 to 88 | 12 |
There is no ranking by the combined score: it mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people.
Everyone, A to Z
-
Balaji Srinivasan
Balaji S. Srinivasan is a technology entrepreneur, investor and author who was formerly CTO of Coinbase and a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, and who founded Network School.
80 resolved of 1,569 claims collected
- Factual claims 72 high
- Predictions 66 medium
- Promises insufficient record
-
Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.
99 resolved of 865 claims collected
- Factual claims 76 high
- Predictions 68 low
- Promises insufficient record
-
Bill Gates
Bill Gates is a co-founder of Microsoft, chair of the Gates Foundation, and author of the Gates Notes blog.
85 resolved of 583 claims collected
- Factual claims 77 high
- Predictions 58 low
-
Daniela Amodei
Daniela Amodei is listed as co-founder and President of Anthropic on the company's leadership page and in her Wikipedia article.
88 resolved of 461 claims collected
- Factual claims 83 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
-
Dario Amodei
Dario Amodei is co-founder and CEO of Anthropic and a former VP of Research at OpenAI, where he led work on GPT-2 and GPT-3.
97 resolved of 1,335 claims collected
- Factual claims 76 high
- Predictions 56 medium
- Promises insufficient record
-
Demis Hassabis
Sir Demis Hassabis founded DeepMind, leads Isomorphic Labs, shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, and was knighted for services to AI; he was DeepMind's CEO until August 2026, after which he was reported as chairman of Google DeepMind and chief scientist of Alphabet.
86 resolved of 802 claims collected
- Factual claims 81 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises 65 low
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky founded the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and LessWrong, co-authored the best-selling book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' (Little, Brown, 2025), and was named to the TIME100 AI 2023 list.
79 resolved of 2,016 claims collected
- Factual claims 76 high
- Predictions 60 low
-
Elon Musk
Elon Musk is a business executive who is CEO of Tesla and CEO and Chief Engineer of SpaceX, and who owns X.
94 resolved of 1,276 claims collected
- Factual claims 70 medium
- Predictions 46 medium
- Promises 53 medium
- Guidance 44 low
-
Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus is an author and AI entrepreneur and professor emeritus at NYU; he has written six books, including Rebooting AI and Taming Silicon Valley, founded Geometric Intelligence (bought by Uber), testified at the May 2023 US Senate AI hearing, and writes a newsletter with over 121,000 subscribers.
103 resolved of 712 claims collected
- Factual claims 79 high
- Predictions 80 medium
- Promises insufficient record
-
GiveWell
GiveWell is a US-based nonprofit charity evaluator that researches and recommends high-impact giving opportunities, mainly in global health and poverty reduction.
23 resolved of 190 claims collected
- Factual claims 76 medium
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises 70 low
-
Jeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos is an entrepreneur who founded Amazon, serves as its executive chairman, owns Blue Origin and The Washington Post, and is co-CEO of Project Prometheus.
96 resolved of 529 claims collected
- Factual claims 84 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
- Guidance insufficient record
-
Jensen Huang
Jensen Huang is the co-founder, president and chief executive officer of NVIDIA, and a member of its board of directors.
107 resolved of 688 claims collected
- Factual claims 72 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
- Guidance insufficient record
-
Jeremy Grantham
Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.
73 resolved of 1,004 claims collected
- Factual claims 72 medium
- Predictions 56 medium
- Promises insufficient record
-
Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer is a financial television host and commentator who has hosted CNBC's "Mad Money" since 2005, co-anchors "Squawk on the Street," founded TheStreet and has written several published books.
14 resolved of 234 claims collected
- Factual claims 75 low
- Predictions insufficient record
-
Marc Andreessen
Marc Andreessen co-created the Mosaic browser, cofounded Netscape, and is cofounder and general partner of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.
105 resolved of 1,009 claims collected
- Factual claims 67 high
- Predictions 60 low
- Promises insufficient record
-
Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg is a technology entrepreneur who co-founded Facebook and serves as founder, chairman and chief executive officer of Meta Platforms.
90 resolved of 1,575 claims collected
- Factual claims 80 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises 85 medium
- Guidance insufficient record
-
Michael Burry
Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.
73 resolved of 593 claims collected
- Factual claims 74 high
- Predictions 62 low
- Promises insufficient record
-
Nassim Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an author and risk researcher, known for the five-volume Incerto series, which includes Fooled by Randomness.
94 resolved of 783 claims collected
- Factual claims 73 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
-
Nate Silver
Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.
84 resolved of 617 claims collected
- Factual claims 82 high
- Predictions 61 medium
- Promises 67 low
-
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.
66 resolved of 294 claims collected
- Factual claims 72 medium
- Predictions 40 medium
-
Ørsted
Ørsted is a Danish energy company, formerly DONG Energy, that develops, builds and operates offshore wind farms and other renewable energy assets.
29 resolved of 227 claims collected
- Factual claims 84 medium
- Predictions 46 low
- Promises 60 low
-
Peter Thiel
Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist who co-founded PayPal and Palantir Technologies and founded Founders Fund.
55 resolved of 673 claims collected
- Factual claims 71 medium
- Predictions insufficient record
-
Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and was its CEO until 2017, and is the author of several books including Principles: Life and Work.
91 resolved of 827 claims collected
- Factual claims 77 high
- Predictions 72 low
-
Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil is an author of books on artificial intelligence and the technological singularity, including The Singularity Is Near, The Singularity Is Nearer, The Age of Spiritual Machines and How to Create a Mind; he received the 1999 National Medal of Technology and Innovation, became Director of Engineering at Google and co-founded Singularity University.
78 resolved of 894 claims collected
- Factual claims 68 high
- Predictions 42 low
- Promises insufficient record
-
Rodney Brooks
Rodney Brooks is a roboticist, MIT professor emeritus, and co-founder of iRobot, Rethink Robotics and Robust.AI.
88 resolved of 1,166 claims collected
- Factual claims 83 high
- Predictions 67 low
- Promises insufficient record
-
Sam Altman
Sam Altman co-founded OpenAI and serves as its chief executive officer, according to OpenAI's own announcement and Crunchbase.
87 resolved of 930 claims collected
- Factual claims 83 high
- Predictions 69 low
- Promises 69 low
-
Satya Nadella
Satya Nadella is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft, which he has led as CEO since February 2014.
98 resolved of 969 claims collected
- Factual claims 83 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises 77 medium
-
Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.
81 resolved of 775 claims collected
- Factual claims 80 medium
- Predictions 70 medium
- Promises insufficient record
-
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker is listed by Harvard as the Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology, and he is the author of widely read books including The Language Instinct, The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now.
99 resolved of 879 claims collected
- Factual claims 74 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
-
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is an economist, author and commentator who holds the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and co-founded the Marginal Revolution blog.
97 resolved of 775 claims collected
- Factual claims 80 high
- Predictions insufficient record
- Promises insufficient record
-
Vinod Khosla
Vinod Khosla is a venture capitalist and founder of Khosla Ventures, and a co-founder of Sun Microsystems.
52 resolved of 567 claims collected
- Factual claims 72 medium
- Predictions 58 low
-
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.
78 resolved of 1,556 claims collected
- Factual claims 85 high
- Predictions 78 low
- Promises 72 low
- Guidance insufficient record
-
Yann LeCun
Yann LeCun is a computer scientist who shared the 2018 ACM Turing Award, is a Jacob T. Schwartz Professor at NYU's Courant Institute, was Meta's Chief AI Scientist and founding director of FAIR, and is Executive Chairman of AMI Labs.
84 resolved of 1,175 claims collected
- Factual claims 78 high
- Predictions 64 low
- Promises insufficient record
Scores are out of 100, one for each kind of claim. Compare people · How scores are made.