Scott Alexander: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

80 72 88

Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

70 62 78

Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

81 claims

81 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mostly true	Factual	19 Oct 2026	MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI. Factual · 19 Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	19 Oct 2026	Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, described as Twitter Community Notes but for everything. Factual · 19 Oct 2026	Technology
Delivered on time	Promise	19 Oct 2026	Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup. Promise · 19 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	5 Oct 2026	Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English. Factual · 5 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	5 Oct 2026	Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs. Factual · 5 Oct 2026	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	5 Oct 2026	Physicians For AI Safety exists, wants to talk to physicians interested in AI safety, and has an open letter such people can sign. Factual · 5 Oct 2026	Field building and careers
Resolved true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Factual	3 Apr 2025	Through history, people have been reluctant to admit an AI is truly intelligent. Factual · 3 Apr 2025	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI capabilities
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Resolved true	Factual	3 Apr 2025	Nvidia originally came from gaming. Factual · 3 Apr 2025	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	3 Apr 2025	Scott Alexander said he thinks the AI alignment community did not really expect LLMs. Factual · 3 Apr 2025	AI safety and alignment
Resolved true	Factual	10 Dec 2024	Solitary confinement for prisoners might be more expensive than standard imprisonment. Factual · 10 Dec 2024	Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true	Factual	10 Dec 2024	Following Roodman, Scott's original cost-benefit analysis of prison gave two conclusions: one counting prisoners' own suffering and one not. Factual · 10 Dec 2024	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true	Factual	10 Dec 2024	Most of the benefits of prison come from incapacitation rather than deterrence. Factual · 10 Dec 2024	Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true	Factual	10 Dec 2024	Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly. Factual · 10 Dec 2024	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	10 Dec 2024	In the original post, Scott said that although murder was down in El Salvador, the statistics didn't really show a decline in theft. Factual · 10 Dec 2024	Other
Resolved true	Factual	20 Feb 2023	As of 2023 the technology to offer polygenic scores to consumers definitely exists. Factual · 20 Feb 2023	Technology
Mostly true	Prediction	20 Feb 2023	Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023	AI capabilities
Mostly true	Factual	20 Feb 2023	As of early 2023 nobody is talking about technological unemployment, because unemployment rates are historically low. Factual · 20 Feb 2023	AI, the economy and work
Mostly true	Factual	20 Feb 2023	impute.me may provide the consumer polygenic score service Scott Alexander predicted, but it has made no public waves. Factual · 20 Feb 2023	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	20 Feb 2023	Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023	AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true	Factual	20 Feb 2023	In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions. Factual · 20 Feb 2023	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	14 Mar 2022	In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Factual · 14 Mar 2022	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	14 Mar 2022	The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before. Factual · 14 Mar 2022	Other global risks
Resolved true	Factual	14 Mar 2022	A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score. Factual · 14 Mar 2022	Science and research methods
Mostly true	Factual	14 Mar 2022	Early in the Russia-Ukraine war prediction markets gave Ukraine poor odds, and by March 2022 they were much more optimistic about Ukraine. Factual · 14 Mar 2022	Other global risks
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	14 Feb 2021	Scott Alexander said the NYT's characterisation was true only insofar as he once expressed agreement with an unrelated Charles Murray position: that telling poor people to learn to code is insufficient and a stable income is needed. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	In early 2020, Scott Alexander learned the New York Times wanted to write an article about him. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	Scott Alexander wrote a 30,000-word condemnation of one of the right-wing figures named in the article on his blog a few years ago. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	14 Feb 2021	Scott Alexander has never personally been involved in the tech industry. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time	Promise	22 Jan 2019	Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019. Promise · 22 Jan 2019	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	22 Jan 2019	Scott Alexander made predictions in February 2018 for the next five years. Factual · 22 Jan 2019	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	22 Jan 2019	Cryptocurrency crashed during 2018, after Bitcoin was around $15,000 when Scott Alexander made his 2018 predictions. Factual · 22 Jan 2019	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	AI, the economy and work
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other
Mostly true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other global risks
Mostly true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Technology
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Prediction · Jan 2018	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	2018	There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Prediction · 2018	AI, the economy and work
Mixed	Prediction	2018	Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true	Prediction	2018	The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Prediction · 2018	Other
Resolved false	Prediction	2018	If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Prediction · 2018	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Science and research methods
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Mostly true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Mostly false	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of each year. Factual · 25 Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other
Resolved true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Science and research methods
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	The Nazis' outgroup was the almost-identical German Jews rather than the culturally distant Japanese. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	Estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Science and research methods
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	Heritability of attitudes toward gay rights is estimated at 0.3 to 0.5, slightly higher than the heritability of homosexuality. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Science and research methods
Mostly true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	Researchers have studied belief congruence theory, that belief differences matter more than demographics in forming in-groups and outgroups, for decades. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true	Factual	30 Sep 2014	Scott Alexander is a psychiatrist by profession. Factual · 30 Sep 2014	Their own work or organisation

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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)

MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2026-10-19. The claim has two parts: (a) MNX is a real-money prediction market focused on AI; (b) it is a project of Manifold co-founder Stephen Grugett. TRUE: MNX's site, launch announcements or reporting show that it was a prediction market on AI-related questions where users traded with real money (not play money), and that Stephen Grugett led or founded it. MOSTLY TRUE: both parts hold, with a minor slip, such as Grugett being one of several founders, or AI being the main focus rather than the only one. MIXED: only one part holds, for example it is a real-money AI market but not Grugett's project, or it is Grugett's AI market but uses only play money. MOSTLY FALSE: MNX was only announced or waitlisted, with no live real-money trading by that date. FALSE: there is no such project, or it is not a prediction market on AI.

Evidence

Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange Manifold Markets (Substack newsletter) · 18 February 2026
“We’re proud to announce we’re launching a new platform to do real-money trading: MNX.”
Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange Manifold Markets (Substack newsletter) · 18 February 2026
“MNX is a separate company from Manifold entirely.”
MegaETH-based MNX raises $6.4 million pre-seed at $40 million valuation to build AI-focused futures exchange The Block · 10 June 2026
“MNX was formed last fall by Grugett and Ian Philips, co-founders of prediction markets platform Manifold Markets, to create a trading venue for AI-related assets”
MegaETH ecosystem MNX launched, introducing futures for private AI companies such as OpenAI ChainCatcher · 13 October 2026
“According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency exchange MNX, developed by the prediction market platform Manifold Markets, officially launched on Tuesday, offering futures contracts linked to the valuations of private AI companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, and Moonshot.”

Reasoning

Manifold's launch announcement calls MNX "the AI Exchange", a new platform for real-money trading, and says it is a separate company from Manifold (E1, E2). The Block reports that Stephen Grugett and Ian Philips, co-founders of Manifold Markets, formed MNX as a trading venue for AI-related assets (E3). ChainCatcher, citing CoinDesk, reports that MNX officially launched on 2026-10-13, before the judge date, with futures contracts tied to the valuations of private AI companies (E4). Both parts of the claim largely hold, with minor slips: Grugett co-founded MNX with Philips rather than alone [E3], and reporting describes MNX as an AI-focused futures exchange rather than using the term prediction market [E3][E4].

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_09d4321e9d69, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_09d4321e9d69

Claims without a verdict

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