ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Delivered on time Promise 19 Oct 2026 Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup. Promise · 19 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019. Promise · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“I’ll probably make a post about it, but consider this an early heads-up.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)

Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.

Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: Scott Alexander publishes a dedicated post (or a clearly labelled section of a post) on Astral Codex Ten announcing or describing the Bay Area ACX meetup that the 19 October 2026 heads-up referred to, before that meetup takes place. Mostly false: the only further mention is a brief line in an open thread, or the post appears only after the meetup. False: the meetup takes place and the ACX posts and open threads from 19 October 2026 up to the meetup contain no such post. The 'probably' hedge is noted, but the verdict depends on whether the post was published.

Evidence

  1. San Francisco Meetup This Saturday Astral Codex Ten (Substack), by Scott Alexander · 22 October 2026 Own record
    “Why: We’re having our usual round of fall meetups, and San Francisco is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because it’s likely to be our biggest, and because I plan to be there.”
  2. ACX Everywhere w/ Scott Alexander fog·city (event calendar, listed by STDISF via Luma)
    “Saturday, October 24 · 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM · Mox, 1680 Mission Street, San Francisco, San Francisco — Mox Event Space (Mission 13th St)”

Reasoning

On 22 October 2026, Astral Codex Ten published a dedicated post, "San Francisco Meetup This Saturday", announcing the meetup. In it Scott Alexander says he is signal-boosting it and plans to attend (E1). An independent event calendar lists the meetup at Mox in San Francisco on Saturday 24 October, 1–5 PM, so the post appeared before the meetup (E2). This meets the criteria for a dedicated post published before the meetup took place.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_fcae5a3ffc4b, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fcae5a3ffc4b

Claims without a verdict

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