ClaimsScott Alexander

“I’ll probably make a post about it, but consider this an early heads-up.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Promise Their own work or organisation

Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.

Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.

Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

What would count as true or false

True: Scott Alexander publishes a dedicated post (or a clearly labelled section of a post) on Astral Codex Ten announcing or describing the Bay Area ACX meetup that the 19 October 2026 heads-up referred to, before that meetup takes place. Mostly false: the only further mention is a brief line in an open thread, or the post appears only after the meetup. False: the meetup takes place and the ACX posts and open threads from 19 October 2026 up to the meetup contain no such post. The 'probably' hedge is noted, but the verdict depends on whether the post was published.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 San Francisco Meetup This Saturday Astral Codex Ten (Substack), by Scott Alexander · 22 October 2026 Own record

    “Why: We’re having our usual round of fall meetups, and San Francisco is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because it’s likely to be our biggest, and because I plan to be there.”

  2. E2 ACX Everywhere w/ Scott Alexander fog·city (event calendar, listed by STDISF via Luma)

    “Saturday, October 24 · 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM · Mox, 1680 Mission Street, San Francisco, San Francisco — Mox Event Space (Mission 13th St)”

Reasoning

On 22 October 2026, Astral Codex Ten published a dedicated post, "San Francisco Meetup This Saturday", announcing the meetup. In it Scott Alexander says he is signal-boosting it and plans to attend (E1). An independent event calendar lists the meetup at Mox in San Francisco on Saturday 24 October, 1–5 PM, so the post appeared before the meetup (E2). This meets the criteria for a dedicated post published before the meetup took place.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_fcae5a3ffc4b, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fcae5a3ffc4b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More promise claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Delivered on time Promise 22 January 2019
    “I’ll post my 2019 predictions later this week.”

    Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.