Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019.
Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
True: Scott Alexander published his 2019 predictions post on Slate Star Codex between 22 and 27 January 2019. Mostly false: the post appeared after 27 January 2019 (the claim is not delivered on time, however soon after). False: no 2019 predictions post appeared, or one appeared only much later. The post's date in the SSC archive settles it.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (1)
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E1 Predictions For 2019 Slate Star Codex · 25 January 2019 Own record
“At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2019.”
Reasoning
E1 is the post itself, "Predictions For 2019", on Slate Star Codex. Its archive URL puts it on 25 January 2019, inside the 22–27 January window. The text says it is the 2019 batch of yearly predictions ("here are a hundred more for 2019"). The criteria say the post's archive date settles the claim, and that date shows the promise was kept on time.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019.” (said 22 January 2019). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_7e8474838cee, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7e8474838cee
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Scott Alexander
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Delivered on time
“I’ll probably make a post about it, but consider this an early heads-up.”
Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.