Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
80 72 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
70 62 78 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Scott Alexander's claims
35 claims
“MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI.”
Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)
MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2026-10-19. The claim has two parts: (a) MNX is a real-money prediction market focused on AI; (b) it is a project of Manifold co-founder Stephen Grugett. TRUE: MNX's site, launch announcements or reporting show that it was a prediction market on AI-related questions where users traded with real money (not play money), and that Stephen Grugett led or founded it. MOSTLY TRUE: both parts hold, with a minor slip, such as Grugett being one of several founders, or AI being the main focus rather than the only one. MIXED: only one part holds, for example it is a real-money AI market but not Grugett's project, or it is Grugett's AI market but uses only play money. MOSTLY FALSE: MNX was only announced or waitlisted, with no live real-money trading by that date. FALSE: there is no such project, or it is not a prediction market on AI.
Evidence
- Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange Manifold Markets (Substack newsletter) · 18 February 2026
“We’re proud to announce we’re launching a new platform to do real-money trading: MNX.”
- Announcing MNX, the AI Exchange Manifold Markets (Substack newsletter) · 18 February 2026
“MNX is a separate company from Manifold entirely.”
- MegaETH-based MNX raises $6.4 million pre-seed at $40 million valuation to build AI-focused futures exchange The Block · 10 June 2026
“MNX was formed last fall by Grugett and Ian Philips, co-founders of prediction markets platform Manifold Markets, to create a trading venue for AI-related assets”
- MegaETH ecosystem MNX launched, introducing futures for private AI companies such as OpenAI ChainCatcher · 13 October 2026
“According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency exchange MNX, developed by the prediction market platform Manifold Markets, officially launched on Tuesday, offering futures contracts linked to the valuations of private AI companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, and Moonshot.”
Reasoning
Manifold's launch announcement calls MNX "the AI Exchange", a new platform for real-money trading, and says it is a separate company from Manifold (E1, E2). The Block reports that Stephen Grugett and Ian Philips, co-founders of Manifold Markets, formed MNX as a trading venue for AI-related assets (E3). ChainCatcher, citing CoinDesk, reports that MNX officially launched on 2026-10-13, before the judge date, with futures contracts tied to the valuations of private AI companies (E4). Both parts of the claim largely hold, with minor slips: Grugett co-founded MNX with Philips rather than alone [E3], and reporting describes MNX as an AI-focused futures exchange rather than using the term prediction market [E3][E4].
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_09d4321e9d69, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_09d4321e9d69
Claims without a verdict
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