Scott Alexander: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

80 72 88

Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

70 62 78

Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

8 claims

8 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	In early 2020, Scott Alexander learned the New York Times wanted to write an article about him. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Factual	14 Feb 2021	Scott Alexander wrote a 30,000-word condemnation of one of the right-wing figures named in the article on his blog a few years ago. Factual · 14 Feb 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other
Mixed	Prediction	2018	Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks

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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“Their original pitch – and I don’t know if it was true or not – was that they were interested in how I warned about the coronavirus pandemic very early and urged people to wear face masks before this was standard advice.”

Scott Alexander, blog author 14 February 2021 Statement on New York Times Article (Astral Codex Ten)

The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that the NYT's stated pitch was as described; it does not claim the pitch was sincere. Judged as of 2021-02-14. True: records (the reporter's outreach, accounts by Scott or others, or NYT statements) show the reporter first described the story as being about how Scott or his blog community warned early about COVID-19 and urged mask-wearing before official advice. Mostly true: the pitch was about early COVID warnings, but a detail (for example the masks) is not confirmed. Mixed: the pitch was partly about COVID and partly about something else. Mostly false: COVID was a minor part of the stated pitch. False: the pitch was about something else entirely.

Evidence

Astral Codex Ten Podcast: NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog Astral Codex Ten Podcast (libsyn), audio reading of Scott Alexander's post · 23 June 2020 Own record
“He told me it would be a mostly positive piece about how we were an interesting gathering place for people in tech, and how we were ahead of the curve on some aspects of the coronavirus situation.”
Silicon Valley's Safe Space The New York Times (Cade Metz), copy hosted at pdf.stafforini.com · 13 February 2021
“hoping to get his views on the Rationalist way and its effect on Silicon Valley”
The Slate Star Codex saga proves a new blasphemy code is emerging among liberals New Statesman · 24 February 2021
“Metz allegedly led him to believe that the focus would be on Alexander’s prescient warnings about Covid 19.”

Reasoning

Scott Alexander's own June 2020 account (E1) said the reporter described a piece about the blog as an interesting gathering place for people in tech, and about how it was ahead of the curve on aspects of the coronavirus. It does not mention masks. The NYT article itself (E2) says the reporter approached Alexander hoping to get his views on the Rationalist way and its effect on Silicon Valley. A New Statesman commentary (E3) says Metz "allegedly" framed the story around the early Covid warnings, also without mentioning masks. Taken together, the stated pitch appears to have been partly about COVID and partly about the tech community, and the mask detail is not confirmed.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice.” (said 14 February 2021). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_18c8837286e3, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_18c8837286e3

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Scott Alexander? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.