Scott Alexander

Prediction · Philosophy, ethics and society

“The culture wars will continue to be marked by both sides scoring an unrelenting series of own-goals, with the victory going to whoever can make their supporters shut up first.”

Scott Alexander, blog author · 15 February 2018 · Five More Years (Slate Star Codex)

The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is judged over Feb 2018 to Feb 2023 and has two parts: (1) the culture wars continued and both sides kept making widely recognised self-defeating moves (own-goals); (2) outcomes went to whichever side got its more vocal supporters to quiet down first. TRUE if commentary and events over the period show both parts: own-goals by both sides were persistent, and the side that restrained its activists gained ground in observable outcomes such as elections, public opinion or policy. MIXED if part (1) is well supported but part (2) cannot be shown or is contradicted by mixed outcomes. MOSTLY FALSE if the culture wars continued but own-goals were plainly one-sided, or part (2) is clearly contradicted. FALSE if the culture wars visibly subsided, or the dynamic described was largely absent.

Evidence

1. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023 Own record

   “I think all of this is basically true, though I’m probably judging this through the same biased idiosyncratic social lens that I used in 2018 to see these as rising trends, so I’m not too impressed with myself.”

2. The 'Great Awokening' Is Winding Down - Musa al-Gharbi Musa al-Gharbi (personal blog, sociologist) · 8 February 2023

   “The matter of fact is that, for better or worse (or more likely, a bit of both), the post-2011 “Great Awokening” seems like it might be winding down.”

3. The 'Great Awokening' Is Winding Down - Musa al-Gharbi Musa al-Gharbi (personal blog, sociologist) · 8 February 2023

   “Running moderate Democratic candidates against GOP extremists proved to be a winning move throughout the country in 2022.”

4. A growing share of Americans are familiar with ‘cancel culture’ Pew Research Center · 9 June 2022

   “Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say that, in general, calling people out on social media for posting offensive content holds them accountable (65% vs. 34%).”

5. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023 Own record

   “I think all of this is basically true, though I’m probably judging this through the same biased idiosyncratic social lens that I used in 2018 to see these as rising trends, so I’m not too impressed with myself.”

6. The 'Great Awokening' Is Winding Down Musa al-Gharbi (personal blog) · 8 February 2023

   “Interestingly, many of the same types of data that substantiate a significant transformation in discourse and norms after 2011 now seem to suggest that the ‘Great Awokening’ may have run its course.”

7. The 'Great Awokening' Is Winding Down Musa al-Gharbi (personal blog) · 8 February 2023

   “Following anemic 2020 results and recalls of progressive politicians in blue states, there have been efforts in the Democratic Party to “course correct,” to avoid further alienating normie voters.”

8. Demystifying US Electoral Politics: A 2023 Primer for America Watchers Nippon.com · 2 March 2023

   “In the general election, however, Trump-endorsed challengers fared poorly overall—one important reason the “red wave” failed to materialize.”

9. How Democrats went from defund to refund the police NBC News · 6 February 2022

   “Adams' victory in the crowded Democratic primary last year was seen by many in the party as a sign that voters were done with anti-police rhetoric.”

10. Analysis: Even Democrats are now admitting 'Defund the Police' was a massive mistake | CNN Politics CNN · 5 November 2021

    “Talk of curbing police departments by cutting or limiting their resources has run into a countervailing wall of concern over public safety and waning support from early allies – including leading Democrats who largely view it as political poison.”

11. How Democrats got themselves ensnared in the right's culture-war trap once again The Week · 1 April 2022

    “Some are self-inflicted — especially when it comes to the culture-war issues that increasingly dominate American politics.”

12. Democrats Have Backed Off of the Culture War. Why Isn't It Making a Difference? The Nation · 11 April 2024

    “The result is that Republicans have gotten to fill this void with an image of Democrats as out-of-touch cultural extremists.”

Reasoning

Part (1) has reasonable support. The commentary shows Democrats making self-inflicted culture-war mistakes, such as "Defund the Police" being called political poison (E10, E11). It also shows a Republican one: Trump-endorsed challengers fared poorly and the expected "red wave" did not come (E8). Part (2) rests mainly on one sociologist's blog. It says Democrats tried to "course correct" and that running moderates won in 2022 (E3, E7), and NBC reports that many in the party saw Adams' primary win as a sign voters were done with anti-police rhetoric (E9). That is not enough to show a consistent pattern where the side that quieted its activists won. Scott Alexander's own grading (E1) says "all of this is basically true" but is not independent, and the quoted text does not name this specific claim.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_0ca6bf221449, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0ca6bf221449