ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

6 claims

6 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved false Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

True: Bitcoin's price on 31 December 2018 was above $10,000. Use the daily close on a major price index or exchange aggregate such as CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk BPI or Bitstamp. Mostly true: not used for a price threshold. Mostly false: the price was below $10,000 but within 2% of it ($9,800 to $10,000). False: the price was below $9,800.

Evidence

  1. Historical Snapshot - 31 December 2018 | CoinMarketCap CoinMarketCap · 31 December 2018
    “Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d 1 BTC Bitcoin BTC $65,331,499,157.74 $3,742.70”
  2. Bitcoin Returns in 2018 by Month and Day | Maketo Maketo · 1 January 2018
    “Closed - $3,747.39 - Year return - −72.94%”
  3. 比特币2018年价格走势图 btc126 · 6 January 2018
    “| 2018-12-31 | 3868.74 | 3725.87 |”

Reasoning

CoinMarketCap's historical snapshot for 31 December 2018 lists Bitcoin's price as $3,742.70 [E1]. Maketo's page on Bitcoin's 2018 returns gives a close of $3,747.39 and a year return of −72.94% [E2]. Both figures are far below the $9,800 cutoff that would separate mostly false from false, so the claim resolves false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_f92a043a8b27, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f92a043a8b27

Claims without a verdict

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