ClaimsScott Alexander

“Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

True: Bitcoin's price on 31 December 2018 was above $10,000. Use the daily close on a major price index or exchange aggregate such as CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk BPI or Bitstamp. Mostly true: not used for a price threshold. Mostly false: the price was below $10,000 but within 2% of it ($9,800 to $10,000). False: the price was below $9,800.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Historical Snapshot - 31 December 2018 | CoinMarketCap CoinMarketCap · 31 December 2018

    “Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d 1 BTC Bitcoin BTC $65,331,499,157.74 $3,742.70”

  2. E2 Bitcoin Returns in 2018 by Month and Day | Maketo Maketo · 1 January 2018

    “Closed - $3,747.39 - Year return - −72.94%”

  3. E3 比特币2018年价格走势图 btc126 · 6 January 2018

    “| 2018-12-31 | 3868.74 | 3725.87 |”

Reasoning

CoinMarketCap's historical snapshot for 31 December 2018 lists Bitcoin's price as $3,742.70 [E1]. Maketo's page on Bitcoin's 2018 returns gives a close of $3,747.39 and a year return of −72.94% [E2]. Both figures are far below the $9,800 cutoff that would separate mostly false from false, so the claim resolves false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_f92a043a8b27, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f92a043a8b27

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

    Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.