ClaimsScott Alexander

“Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Prediction Economics and markets

Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

True if Bitcoin's USD price at the end of 2017 (the 31 December 2017 close, using a major index such as CoinDesk BPI or CoinMarketCap) was above $1000. False if it was at or below $1000. The 60% figure is a stated probability; judge only the outcome. If the price was just under $1000 (within 2%), the verdict is mostly false.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Bitcoin Price On Dec 31 2017 | StatMuse Money StatMuse

    “The closing price for Bitcoin (BTC) on December 31, 2017 was $14,156.40.”

  2. E2 Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance

    “Dec 31, 2017 12,897.70 14,377.40 12,755.60 14,156.40 14,156.40 12,136,299,520”

  3. E3 Blockchain's wild 2018: Bitcoin's losses, pricey equipment and DJ Khaled NBC News · 19 December 2018

    “Bitcoin's price retreated for the rest of 2017 and ended the year at $12,993, according to CoinDesk.”

  4. E4 Bitcoin Price 2017 Movement History Bittime · 17 March 2025

    “End of Year Price: $13,860.14 on December 31”

Reasoning

Several independent sources put Bitcoin's price at the end of 2017 far above $1000. StatMuse and Yahoo Finance give a 31 December 2017 close of $14,156.40 (E1, E2). NBC News, citing CoinDesk, says Bitcoin ended 2017 at $12,993 (E3), and Bittime gives $13,860.14 (E4). The sources disagree on the exact figure, but every one is well over the $1000 threshold.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3204d61909f8, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3204d61909f8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved false Prediction January 2018
    “Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

    Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.