ClaimsScott Alexander

“Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is a 70% forecast, judged on the change over the calendar year: the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on the last trading day of 2016 compared with its close on the last trading day of 2015. True: the Dow did not fall more than 10% over 2016 (end of 2016 close at least 90% of end of 2015 close). False: the end of 2016 close was more than 10% below the end of 2015 close. Falls within the year that recovered by year-end do not count as falling 'this year'. If Scott Alexander's own published grading used a different measure, it is noted but does not override this rule.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 2016 Year in Review: Major U.S. Market Statistics at Year-End 24/7 Wall St. · 31 December 2016

    “The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out the year 2016 at 19,762.60 on December 30. It may have not hit the elusive 20,000 mark but it closed out 2016 with a gain of 13.4% from the 17,425.03 close on the last trading day of 2015.”

Reasoning

E1 is an independent year-end market review. It reports that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2016 at 19,762.60 on December 30, up 13.4% from its 17,425.03 close on the last trading day of 2015. That year-end close is well above 90% of the 2015 close, so under the resolution criteria the forecast that the Dow would not fall more than 10% resolves true.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_7917bdfb1db7, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7917bdfb1db7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
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All of them

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