ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

66 claims

66 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual Oct 2026 The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. Factual · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Oct 2026 US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War. Factual · Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Nov 2025 The longest-ever US government shutdown disrupted official employment and inflation data, further clouding policymakers' perceptions. Factual · Nov 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Nov 2025 Despite a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025, uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs and other policies curtailed US growth in the second half of the year. Factual · Nov 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 29 Nov 2023 Roubini published a recent Project Syndicate piece discussing the rise in economic threats and their interactions with social, political, environmental and technological developments. Factual · 29 Nov 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 3 Jan 2023 China produces or processes most of the rare-earth metals used in electric vehicles. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Mostly false Factual 3 Jan 2023 Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 All the zombie institutions that survived because of negative interest rates, quantitative easing and credit easing now face rising debt servicing ratios. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 3 Jan 2023 Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 Corporate debt and shadow bank lending to companies built up over the last 10 to 15 years, and became even more extreme after Covid-19. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Jan 2023 Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan. Factual · 3 Jan 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 6 Nov 2022 During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 6 Nov 2022 The top 10% of Americans hold 80% of US equity, the top 1% about 50%, and the bottom 80% hold almost none. Factual · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 6 Nov 2022 Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP. Factual · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Nov 2022 In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 The 1970s stagflation was not a debt crisis and did not involve a geopolitical depression. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 28 Oct 2022 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 In the 1970s there was a negative stagflationary shock with inflation followed by recession. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 Iran is becoming nuclear, which Israel regards as an existential threat it cannot accept. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Mixed Factual 28 Oct 2022 Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 Climate change causes zoonotic disease, and pandemics result from destruction of animal ecosystems. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2022 China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital. Factual · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 25 Oct 2022 The era of the Great Moderation, with okay growth and low 2% inflation, is over. Factual · 25 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 14 Sep 2021 As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak. Factual · 14 Sep 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 21 Jul 2021 On 2021-07-21 the Air Quality Index in New York City was 175, rated unhealthy, due to haze from West Coast fires. Factual · 21 Jul 2021 Other
Mostly true Factual 20 Jul 2021 On 2021-07-20 the Bitcoin price was below $30,000, putting most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 at a loss. Factual · 20 Jul 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 13 Nov 2020 Many central banks, including China's, Sweden's and the eurozone's, are starting to consider creating a central bank digital currency. Factual · 13 Nov 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 27 Dec 2019 The latest issue of CIRSD's Horizons magazine includes Roubini's article "The Specter of Deglobalization and the Thucydides Trap". Factual · 27 Dec 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 27 Nov 2019 As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low. Factual · 27 Nov 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 20 Nov 2019 In November 2019 there is a growing disconnect between mediocre global economic growth with rising risks and frothy, exuberant financial markets. Factual · 20 Nov 2019 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Nov 2019 As of November 2019, no application of blockchain, defined as a public, decentralized, permission-less, trustless ledger, works or is widely used despite billions spent on it over a decade. Factual · 6 Nov 2019 Technology
Resolved true Factual 15 Oct 2018 Bitcoin's value had fallen by around 70% from its peak in late 2017 as of October 2018. Factual · 15 Oct 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Resolved true Factual 15 Oct 2018 Four out of five initial coin offerings (ICOs) were scams. Factual · 15 Oct 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2018 Unlike the Internet, which quickly produced email, the World Wide Web and millions of commercial ventures, blockchain's only application, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, does not even fulfill its stated purpose. Factual · 26 Jan 2018 Technology
Mostly true Factual 2009 Greenspan and the Fed spoke of irrational exuberance in tech stocks in 1996 without acting, and after the tech bubble burst cut rates to 1%, then to zero after the housing bust. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2009 US real home prices doubled between 1996 and 2006, whereas historically home prices never rose more than inflation. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2009 Roubini began worrying about the US economy and financial system in 2006 after seeing an unsustainable housing bubble in home prices and mortgages. Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2009 Roubini wrote about his concerns in summer 2006 and gave a speech to a few hundred International Monetary Fund staff in early September 2006. Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2009 The Fed's philosophy was to not act against asset bubbles on the way up, as hard to identify and dangerous to prick, but to ease aggressively after they burst. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2009 After the 1987 stock market crash the Fed eased aggressively, giving the impression it would rescue markets, leading to talk of a 'Greenspan put'. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2009 In 2006 people were sceptical of Roubini's predictions, talking instead of high growth, a Goldilocks economy and a gently deflating minor housing bubble. Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2009 By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 25 Sep 2006 Existing home sales figures released on 2006-09-25 showed falling home prices. Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2006 As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 25 Sep 2006 In 2006 returns for many hedge funds are below those of safe Treasury bills. Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2006 Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 25 Sep 2006 Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
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Nouriel Roubini

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Factual Economics and markets

“this year’s Iran War, which caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.”

Nouriel Roubini, columnist, Project Syndicate October 2026 Why Is the Global Economy So Resilient? (Project Syndicate)

The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of October 2026. Two things must hold: a war involving Iran happened in 2026, and it caused an energy shock (a rise in oil and/or gas prices, or a supply disruption) larger than any since the 1970s oil crises (1973 and 1979). That means larger than the 1990 Gulf War spike, the 2008 spike and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, measured by the percentage price rise or the share of global supply lost, as described by the IEA, EIA, major banks or mainstream financial press. True: both hold, and authoritative sources describe the 2026 shock as the largest since the 1970s (or the data clearly show it was). Mostly true: the shock is the largest on most main measures (for example supply lost, or oil price rise), and one comparable episode is about equal on a single measure. Mixed: the shock was clearly very large but sources disagree on whether it beats 1990 or 2022. Mostly false: there was a 2026 Iran war and a significant energy shock, but it was clearly smaller than at least one post-1970s episode (for example smaller in percentage and level than 2022 or 1990). False: there was no 2026 Iran war, or it caused no meaningful energy shock.

Evidence

  1. The Middle East and Global Energy Markets – Topics International Energy Agency (IEA) · 12 August 2026
    “In the wake of the largest oil supply disruption in history, Brent futures – the global benchmark for crude prices – rose steeply, peaking at more than 60% above pre-conflict levels in late April.”
  2. Six Charts to Explain the Global Energy Crisis Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) · 17 September 2026
    “Energy prices did not spike as dramatically as in similar crises in 1973 and 1979 due to several important market conditions.”
  3. Six Charts to Explain the Global Energy Crisis Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) · 17 September 2026
    “Brent crude prices responded to the disruption of energy flows, rising from around $70 per barrel in February to $145 in April, settling around $90 per barrel by the end of August.”
  4. How much longer can the world absorb the Iran war shock? The Irish Times (Martin Wolf column, Financial Times copyright) · 8 October 2026
    “Instead, oil prices peaked at USD 126 per barrel in April 2026.”

Reasoning

The IEA (E1) calls the 2026 Middle East conflict disruption "the largest oil supply disruption in history". Read with the 2026 column on the Iran war shock [E4], that indicates a supply shock larger than any after the 1970s on the supply-lost measure. CSIS (E2) says prices did not spike as sharply as in 1973 and 1979, which fits the claim's "since the 1970s" framing. On price, the sources do not agree: E1 puts the Brent peak at more than 60% above pre-conflict levels, E3 gives a rise from about $70 to $145, and E4 gives a peak of $126. None of the evidence compares these price rises directly with 1990 or 2022. Because the claim is clearly supported on supply disruption but less settled on price, the verdict is mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.” (said October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_016f5a846b1a, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_016f5a846b1a

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