ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

18 claims

18 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Mostly false Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
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Nouriel Roubini

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Prediction AI timelines and forecasting Political

“In a note to my clients this week I made a wide out-of-consensus call that the RN - Le Pen’s party - will win an absolute majority in the current French parliamentary elections (60% probability for this baseline scenario)”

Nouriel Roubini, writing on X 30 June 2024 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2024-06-30 (X)

The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

Judge on the final results of the June–July 2024 French legislative elections (second round on 7 July 2024). An absolute majority means at least 289 of the 577 National Assembly seats. The 60% figure was his baseline probability, but the claim is judged on whether that baseline outcome happened. TRUE: the RN alone won 289 seats or more. MOSTLY TRUE: the RN alone fell short, but the RN together with its formally allied candidates (for example Ciotti's LR faction), counted as one bloc in official results, reached 289 or more. MOSTLY FALSE: neither the RN nor its bloc reached 289, but the RN bloc won the most seats of any bloc. FALSE: the RN bloc neither reached 289 seats nor won the most seats.

Evidence

  1. Leftist surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock | CNN CNN · 7 July 2024
    “Despite leading after the first round of votes, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies won 143 seats.”
  2. Leftist surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock | CNN CNN · 7 July 2024
    “In a surprise result, the New Popular Front (NFP) – a cluster of several parties ranging from the far-left France Unbowed party to the more moderate Socialists and the Ecologists – won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group but short of the 289 required for an absolute majority, according to the French Interior Ministry.”
  3. 2024 French legislative election - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “On the basis of the final results published by the Ministry of the Interior and candidate classifications of Le Monde, the New Popular Front obtained 182 seats, compared to Ensemble with 168, RN-supported candidates with 143, and 45 for LR”
  4. 2024 French legislative election - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “Includes elected candidates jointly invested by the Ciotti-led faction of the LR and backed by the RN (Union of the Far-Right, UXD), which won 17 out of total 142 seats won by RN-led alliance.”

Reasoning

CNN reports that the RN and its allies won 143 seats (E1). The New Popular Front won 182 seats and became the largest group, according to the Interior Ministry (E2). Wikipedia's account of the final Interior Ministry results puts RN-supported candidates at 143 seats, behind the NFP's 182 and Ensemble's 168 (E3); a table note says the RN-led alliance, including 17 Ciotti-faction seats, won 142 seats in total (E4). The RN bloc therefore fell far short of 289 seats and did not win the most seats, which meets the criteria for false.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.” (said 30 June 2024). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_86ef7a825791, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_86ef7a825791

Claims without a verdict

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