ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

63 claims

63 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2026 Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist. Factual · 28 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 23 Oct 2026 In 2022, Republican Phil Scott won Vermont's gubernatorial race by 47 points while Democrat Peter Welch won the Vermont Senate race by 40 points. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 23 Oct 2026 Jocelyn Benson's lead in Michigan gubernatorial polls is about 4.2 points larger than Abdul El-Sayed's lead in the Michigan Senate polls. Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025 Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden. Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Mostly true Factual 8 Apr 2025 The average US tariff rate on the rest of the world was at least 23% as of April 2025. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Apr 2025 The two special elections held in early April 2025 were in extremely Republican-leaning, rural Florida districts. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 8 Apr 2025 Congress has the power to pass a law stopping President Trump's tariffs. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 8 Apr 2025 About 60% of Americans have investments in the stock market. Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 7 Nov 2024 Utah has gradually become more politically purple, due to a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being keen on Trump. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Mostly true Factual 7 Nov 2024 Conservatives leaving blue states tend to move to Florida and Texas, making those states redder, and many polls did not catch up. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Resolved true Factual 7 Nov 2024 In Silver Bulletin's final model, a Trump sweep of the seven swing states was the most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations. Factual · 7 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, but Barack Obama won in a landslide. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Silver said that, if anything, there was too little panic among Democrats about 2016, and that they were dismissive of polls showing a tightening race late in the campaign and a tenuous Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 The previous Quinnipiac polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quite a bit better for Harris than the latest ones. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Dozens of election polls are released every week. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 9 Oct 2024 Since Nate Silver began covering elections in 2008, Democrats have been prone to bouts of panic about the state of the horse race. Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 8 Oct 2024 In baseball, single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Nate Silver has moved his election forecast model back to his Silver Bulletin newsletter, where the probabilities are technically paywalled. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Millions of people died worldwide in the COVID pandemic, and life was disrupted more than at any time since World War II. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 13 Aug 2024 Humans evolved over hundreds of thousands of years in an environment without abundance. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 13 Aug 2024 In August 2024, Silver suggested, as a rhetorical question, that AI still could not fold clothes or do laundry. Factual · 13 Aug 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Sep 2023 On Substack, subscriptions automatically renew at the price the subscriber signed up for. Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Sep 2023 The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polls from around September 2015 can be found showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polling conducted this early in a US presidential cycle has historically had little to no predictive power for the election result. Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 24 Jun 2022 Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022. Factual · 24 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2022 Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Factual · 6 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 27 May 2022 Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls. Factual · 27 May 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 21 May 2022 Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike. Factual · 21 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 26 Jun 2021 If a very high percentage of a group is vaccinated, a fairly high percentage of infections may be among vaccinated people even if the vaccines are highly effective. Factual · 26 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 16 Jun 2021 The risk of a vaccinated young person getting severely ill from COVID is incredibly low, though not zero. Factual · 16 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 9 Jun 2021 A pollster that earlier showed a big bounce for Garcia has now shown a result implying either that the earlier poll was an outlier or that Wiley has taken over her momentum. Factual · 9 Jun 2021 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 8 Jun 2021 The 2020 election forecasts by Nate Silver's team were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls. Factual · 8 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 29 Mar 2020 The Netherlands considered a herd immunity strategy and its case fatality rate is now 7% as of 2020-03-29. Factual · 29 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 29 Sep 2019 Margins of error in individual state and national primary polls on support among black or Hispanic voters are often very high, for example around +/- 10%. Factual · 29 Sep 2019 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 27 Sep 2019 Democratic primary delegate allocation is highly proportional, and a candidate eventually needs a majority of delegates to win. Factual · 27 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Sep 2019 In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates. Factual · 26 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2019 Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22. Factual · 23 Sep 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Nov 2016 The 2016 polling error was modest and in line with historical polling errors, yet large enough to give Trump many paths to victory. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual Nov 2016 FiveThirtyEight's final 2016 forecast, issued early on election Tuesday evening, gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual Nov 2016 The main reason FiveThirtyEight's 2016 model gave Trump a better chance than other models was its assumption that polling errors are correlated. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual Nov 2016 Clinton significantly underperformed her polls across the Midwest and Rust Belt in the 2016 election, costing her the Electoral College. Factual · Nov 2016 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Factual 11 Oct 2016 FiveThirtyEight's forecast of Clinton's chances is based on objective analysis of polling in presidential elections dating back to 1972. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2016 The two scientific polls after the second 2016 presidential debate showed a Clinton win, but a more marginal one than after the first debate. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said that all the scientific polls after the first 2016 presidential debate showed Clinton had won by a pretty emphatic margin. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 11 Oct 2016 Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mixed Factual 11 Oct 2016 Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent. Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Mostly true Factual 2016 The t-distribution in FiveThirtyEight's model mostly makes a difference for very low-probability events. Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2016 In 2012, Obama beat his polling by 2 or 3 percentage points in almost every swing state. Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2016 FiveThirtyEight's model is based on a combination of state and national polls. Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2016 FiveThirtyEight's polls-only model gives Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning and its polls-plus model gives her 83 percent. Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2015 Donald Trump's overall favorability ratings in 2015 are about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and have not improved. Factual · 2015 Other
Resolved true Factual 2015 With 75 percent of Republicans not voting for Trump, a candidate can still hold the plurality so long as the "no" vote is divided among a sufficient number of alternatives. Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true Factual 2015 In presidential primaries, endorsements and party elite support tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success than early polls. Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true Factual 2015 Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination. Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true Factual 2015 Even this far out, national primary polls have some correlation with outcomes: a candidate near the top is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 2012 In a 2012 interview, Nate Silver described himself as being somewhere between a liberal and a libertarian. Factual · 2012 Their own work or organisation
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Nate Silver

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Factual AI policy and governance

“He's actually not a DSA guy, but sort of a more left populist.”

Nate Silver, election forecaster, on Ezra Klein podcast 28 October 2026 Nate Silver's Midterm Predictions on 'End of the Trump Era' and AI (Newsweek)

Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-10-28. True: credible reporting or El-Sayed's own statements show he is not a DSA member (and was not endorsed as a DSA candidate in a way that implies membership), and he is commonly described as a progressive or left populist. Mostly true: he is not a member, but there are DSA affiliations such as endorsements, or he is better characterised by a somewhat different label. Mixed: membership is ambiguous (e.g. past membership). Mostly false: he has a meaningful DSA affiliation that makes 'not a DSA guy' misleading. False: he is a current DSA member.

Evidence

  1. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “"I'm not technically or practically DSA," El-Sayed told the Wall Street Journal in July.”
  2. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Although the DSA has not officially endorsed El-Sayed in his Senate bid or affirmed his platform, the DSA’s local support for him may raise questions of increased overlap between his platform and the DSA's official stances.”
  3. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Between 2017 and 2020, the Michigan Democrat spoke at six events held by Democratic Socialists of America chapters, including a 2019 fundraiser where he served as the keynote speaker. Additionally, DSA officials told Politico in July that they were mobilizing resources to help El-Sayed win his Democratic primary election.”
  4. Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative Fox News · 6 October 2026
    “Socialist organizers, however, have called him "a longtime friend of Detroit DSA."”

Reasoning

Fox News reports El-Sayed telling the Wall Street Journal in July that he is "not technically or practically DSA" (E1). It also reports that the national DSA had not officially endorsed his Senate bid (E2). The same reporting describes DSA links: he spoke at six DSA chapter events between 2017 and 2020, DSA officials said they were mobilising resources for his primary campaign, and socialist organizers called him "a longtime friend of Detroit DSA" (E3, E4). The criteria treat non-membership combined with this kind of support as mostly true. None of the evidence describes him as a "left populist", so that part of the claim is not confirmed.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA guy but is sort of a more left populist.” (said 28 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e12b2317c260, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e12b2317c260

Claims without a verdict

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