Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
Nate Silver, author and Silver Bulletin founder 12 May 2025 Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026? (Silver Bulletin)
The Silver Bulletin will not publish its official 2026 midterms forecast until at least a year after May 2025.
Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that the official Silver Bulletin 2026 midterms forecast would not go up until at least a year after 12 May 2025. True: the first public release of the official 2026 midterms forecast (the House and/or Senate probability model presented as the official forecast) was on or after 12 May 2026. It is also true if it had not launched by that date. Polling averages, generic-ballot trackers, approval trackers or preliminary commentary do not count as the official forecast. Mostly true: the launch was on or after 12 May 2026, but some forecast component that Silver Bulletin explicitly labelled as part of the official forecast appeared slightly earlier. Mostly false: the official forecast launched before 12 May 2026 but within about one month of it (on or after about 12 April 2026). False: the official forecast launched before about 12 April 2026.
Evidence
- Midterm waves are the rule, not the exception Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 29 September 2026 Own record
“When we launched FLIPR on Aug. 11, Democrats had about a 55 percent chance of winning the Senate and 85 percent in the House.”
- What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 3 August 2026 Own record
“Next week, we’ll launch our midterms model, with complete forecasts of the 435 U.S. House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial races on the ballot this November”
- Nate Silver: Iran War Looms Over Senate Fight That Could Mark 'End of the Trump Era' Benzinga (syndicated on Yahoo) · 27 October 2026
“Silver's election model launched in August giving them a 57.3% chance of taking the chamber, and his latest forecast puts them at approximately 76%.”
Reasoning
Silver Bulletin's own posts say the midterms model was to launch the week after 3 August 2026 (E2) and that FLIPR launched on 11 August 2026 (E1). An independent Benzinga report (E3) confirms that the election model launched in August. Because the official forecast first appeared after 12 May 2026, the claim that it would be at least a year away resolved true.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “The Silver Bulletin will not publish its official 2026 midterms forecast until at least a year after May 2025.” (said 12 May 2025). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_1385f2764639, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1385f2764639
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nate Silver? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.