ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

8 claims

8 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Factual 28 Jul 2025 Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Factual Economics and markets

“the lowest rates in the history of man,”

Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)

Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The test is the date of the claim, 28 July 2025, with the proposition taken as stated: bonds currently, at that date, offer the lowest interest rates in human history. TRUE if benchmark government bond yields in major markets (e.g. US Treasuries, German Bunds) were at or very near all-time historical lows as of July 2025. MOSTLY TRUE if yields were within a small margin of record lows in the main markets. MOSTLY FALSE if yields in July 2025 were well above record lows, but the statement rests on a true recent episode (the record lows of 2020–2021) wrongly presented as current, or applies only to a narrow market. FALSE if benchmark yields in July 2025 were clearly and substantially above their historical lows (e.g. US 10-year far above its 2020 low of about 0.5%) and no such current record lows existed in any major market.

Evidence

  1. Monthly Market Wrap: July 2025 - YCharts YCharts · 4 August 2025
    “Equities rose to kick off H2 2025, existing home prices hit a record, and Treasury yields climbed across the curve.”
  2. 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)
    “2025-06,4.38 2025-07,4.39 2025-08,4.26”
  3. 10-year Federal Reserve Board (H.15 data download)
    “2020-06,0.73 2020-07,0.62 2020-08,0.65”

Reasoning

The Federal Reserve H.15 10-year series puts the July 2025 monthly yield at 4.39 [E2], against 0.62 in July 2020 [E3]. That is several times above the recent low. YCharts reports that Treasury yields rose across the curve in July 2025 [E1]. So, at least for US Treasuries, the claim of history's lowest rates does not hold for July 2025. The evidence does fit a true earlier episode, the 2020 lows, presented as current, which the criteria class as mostly false. The evidence covers only US Treasuries, so it cannot rule out record lows in another major market such as German Bunds, which the criteria require for a plain false.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_663a44e56f2e, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_663a44e56f2e

Claims without a verdict

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