ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

267 claims · page 2 of 3

267 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Factual 2016 Over GMO's 28 years of asset allocation, most risk reduction for clients came in the 2000 and 2007 US bubbles, which GMO sidestepped to a considerable degree. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2016 From late 2002 into 2006 the Fed raised rates by as much as 430 basis points as the economy recovered. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Only mavericks spoke against the recent great bubbles; the economic and financial establishments backed them. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2016 Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO considers a 60-65% equity position what it would hold in a normal world with everything fairly priced. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 Most of GMO's extra performance over 28 years came from ranking asset classes more correctly than not. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Many investors are willing to hold long-term government bonds guaranteeing zero real return rather than buy stocks. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible. Prediction · 2016 AI policy and governance
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO's Benchmark-Free portfolio carries almost 50% equity or equity-like exposure. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 London's financial business will be hurt by Brexit, long and hard. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO does not expect its strategists or analysts to toe a party line. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Most UK corporations will lose easy access to the EU market because of Brexit. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Grantham said he believes the major input to lower rates has been a sustained US Fed policy, since just before 1995, of pushing down short-term rates. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Almost all assets now return 2-2.5% less than they did in the 1955 to 1995 era. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Mean reversion in the US equity market will far more likely be slow and incomplete than a sudden bursting. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 A 2-sigma deviation occurs every 44 years in a normally distributed world and every 35 years in the actual fat-tailed stock market. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 Decent senators won tight races against climate-denier opponents in seven of eight races Grantham's side concentrated on in 2012. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO is solvent and has stayed in business. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 There will be slow, steady progress, but Grantham does not think "we'll make it"; he did not say what "making it" would mean. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The US started drilling thousands of wells over the last five years, and will never drill as many wells in a year as it did in 2012. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO has modeled momentum and value as two key variables for 33 years. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 Grantham has assumed a 0.2% boost to growth from fracking over 18 years, forecasting up to 2030. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Because drilling activity has peaked, fracking will help economic growth less in future than it has so far. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 If methane clathrates start entering the atmosphere, release might continue even if all industrial activity were stopped the next day. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO called the US housing bubble perfectly, warning loudly on the way up. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 US GDP grew about 3.4% a year for 100 years to about 1985, and two thirds of the time stayed within one standard deviation (+/-2.5%) of trend. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Grantham said he thinks "we" will pay a very, very high price. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 In his 1998-1999 survey, over 99% of about 1100 analysts and portfolio managers believed there would be a major bear market, with only 7 voting that the P/E would not go back to 17. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's benchmark-free allocation strategy would have been badly beaten by aggressive portfolios during the 2000 tech bubble. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's Benchmark-Free Allocation Strategy did very well over the past decade because its big asset class bets won. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's Global Asset Allocation Strategy returned 5.4% net of fees with volatility of ±9.2% a year, 20% less than its benchmark. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Robert Shiller's "fair value" series assumed perfect foresight of all future dividends. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 Grantham said that his firm's not following the crowd in the late-1990s market, when P/E ratios reached 33 times in early 1999, was uncomfortably beyond the tolerance of about 40% of its clients. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise Apr 2012 Ben Inker, leader of GMO's asset allocation group, will take up the role of covering the broad investment outlook in the quarterly letters. Promise · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2012 Career risk and the resulting herding are likely to always dominate investing. Prediction · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 In his 1998-1999 survey of about 1100 equity professionals, every respondent agreed that S&P P/E falling from 28-35 to 17 would guarantee a major bear market. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's asset allocation brainstorming team grew from 4 to 25 members over the five years to April 2012. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 GMO's calls on the Japan 65 P/E market and the 2000 U.S. tech bubble were 2 to 3 years early. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's allocation process has always depended on Ben Inker's portfolio management skills, particularly sizing and risk control. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Keynes explained that to keep your job you must never, ever be wrong on your own. Factual · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO could sign no clients to its benchmark-free allocation approach until 2001. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's estimate of standard client patience time has been 3.0 years in normal conditions. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 Ben Inker has led GMO's asset allocation group for more than 10 years. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 Grantham said he believes that this strategy, like roughly 90% of GMO's long-only strategies relative to their benchmarks, takes considerably less real risk. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Fertilizer resources such as potash and potassium will become particularly precious. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 In the 8 years to 2011, resource prices rose enough to undo the effects of the previous 100-year decline. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If weather is friendly in the next year, grain will be in glut because farmers are planting every tillable acre. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 A constrained-resource world will see per capita affluence rise more slowly than otherwise and than in the past, leaving everyone but resource owners worse off. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction Apr 2011 Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 Malthus's 1798 writing accurately described the past development of the human species. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Apr 2011 Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2011 None of these potential experts came within one billionth of 1% of the actual number, which is approximately 10^57. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future. Prediction · Apr 2011 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 Wood availability was probably the most limiting factor on world economic growth before hydrocarbons. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 China's capital spending of about 50% of GDP cannot be sustained, and much of it is likely wasted. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 This is likely the beginning of the end of the rapid growth in population and wealth driven by the Hydrocarbon Revolution. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Raw material prices will rise and shortages will be common in a more resource-constrained world. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Almost all countries other than the U.S. will suffer lower growth from resource limits, but resource-rich countries will benefit relatively as terms of trade move in their favor. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2011 Grantham's foundation is taking a small position, about one-quarter of its eventual target, in resources in the ground and resource efficiency. Factual · Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Hubbert's revised estimate that global oil production would peak around 2016, give or take, could prove remarkably accurate. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is about an 80% chance that China stumbles or weather is better than expected, in which case commodity prices will decline a lot. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2011 If China stumbles and weather is better than expected together, commodity prices will very probably break en masse. Prediction · 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 Grantham said that we have come close to some version of the Volcker rule. Factual · Jul 2010 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 When relative prices of quality stocks versus the rest of the market next cross fair value, the excess return for quality could be over 40 percentage points. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 On average, European countries will be better than the U.S. at rationing health costs. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Japan, with its social cohesion, should dig its way through the aging-related choices and agree to pay the inevitable high prices more easily than others. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Consumers' changed attitudes toward debt and saving will surely last for years. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said his faith in an eventual decent P/E premium for emerging equities over developed equities, exceeding 15% and perhaps by a lot, remained intact. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 The biggest cost of global warming is likely to be the accumulated loss of biodiversity. Prediction · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 A 25% market decline in any six-month period has historically had about a 3% probability. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 Over the last 20 years the market has been mostly overpriced, occasionally spiking down to fair value. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jul 2010 Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction Jul 2010 Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Factual Their own work or organisation

“most of our risk reduction for clients was concentrated in the two classic US bubbles of 2000 and 2007, which we sidestepped to a considerable degree.”

Jeremy Grantham, writing for GMO 2016 3Q 2016 GMO Quarterly Letter: Not With A Bang But A Whimper (GMO via WealthTrack)

Over GMO's 28 years of asset allocation, most risk reduction for clients came in the 2000 and 2007 US bubbles, which GMO sidestepped to a considerable degree.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

It concerns the sources of risk reduction in GMO's client portfolios, which only GMO's records show.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Over GMO's 28 years of asset allocation, most risk reduction for clients came in the 2000 and 2007 US bubbles, which GMO sidestepped to a considerable degree.” (said 2016). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_09f130f75c32, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_09f130f75c32

Claims without a verdict

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