ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

267 claims · page 1 of 3

267 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 28 Jul 2025 Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 U.S. equities are a contender for the highest priced in history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Jul 2023 Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated. Factual · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia. Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The odds of a major US market decline from January 2023 are lower than they were a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 "Polycrisis" may well be the word of the year for 2023. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 From 1932 through 2012, the UK market had a bigger jump on the U.S. presidential cycle than the U.S. market did. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 If any of the major risk factors gets out of control, it might cause a severe global recession. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 In a worst case with severe recession, the market could fall 50% from January 2023 levels. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2022 A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Aug 2022 Superbubbles first form, then suffer a setback with valuations taking a half-step back, as occurred in the first half of 2022. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 31 Aug 2022 If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 31 Aug 2022 In the final stage, fundamentals will deteriorate and the market will decline to a low. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Aug 2022 Markets have just seen the bear market rally stage of the superbubble pattern. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 8 Jan 2021 Grantham believes this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles in financial history, alongside the South Sea bubble, 1929 and 2000. Prediction · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Jan 2021 Bonds are even more expensive by historical comparison than stocks. Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 8 Jan 2021 As of early January 2021, the US stock market P/E ratio is in the top few percent of its historical range while the economy is in the worst few percent. Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2020 The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The most important drivers of the market's P/E ratio are profit margins and current inflation. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 GMO calculated that a return to the old price trend plus a typical overrun in extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades. Factual · 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The S&P is in the top 10% of historical P/E ratios on prior earnings while the U.S. economy is in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably the worst 1%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2020 Grantham's bet was that over the next few quarters from 2020, earnings and profit margins would be crushed. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The model's forecast of future fair P/E 10 assumes market profitability drops 30% and inflation and GDP volatility rise to 2008-like levels. Factual · 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2020 In Grantham's opinion, the U.S. trend GDP growth rate has fallen from over 3% a year to at best 1.5%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2020 Grantham has been spending twice his usual total research time on the interactions between the virus, the economy and markets. Factual · 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2017 Donald Trump said a few anti-Fed things during the election campaign. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?". Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham suggests that this reason for lower demand for capital and lower real rates will probably take a few decades to fade away, not the usual seven-year average regression period for financial ratios. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 Almost all serious economic declines have been associated with oil price surges, and the trend price of oil, based on the cost of finding new oil, is now about three and a half times the old price. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 A corporate tax reduction will raise corporate profits for quite a while above where they otherwise would have been. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Changing the central bank policy of low rates is unlikely to be quick or easy, given 20 years of Fed support and adherents at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham predicts that any effect of lower population growth rates on interest rates will take even longer than a few decades to fade. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2017 In his early training period Grantham adopted Ben Graham's value-oriented biases. Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham thinks interest rates lower than those before 1997 are likely to persist for years. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham says productivity would need unexpected good fortune to accelerate enough to push interest rates up in the near term. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 For about 20 years after 1996 the S&P 500 P/E ratio stayed high by 1935-1995 standards. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 Grantham used to call profit margins the most dependably mean-reverting series in finance. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2017 Grantham said the US market has been acting as if it is oscillating normally enough, but around a much higher average P/E. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 Value investors have for decades told momentum investors that the four most dangerous words are "This time is different." Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 The S&P 500 has sold at a much higher P/E level for 20 years, and this has not meant that better stock pickers have not won. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2017 Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 7 Nov 2016 On November 7, 2016 the S&P 500 price was 8% below the 2-sigma level of 2300 calculated by GMO. Factual · 7 Nov 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jan 2016 China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 Near the 2000 peak Grantham challenged audiences, perhaps 2000 professionals in total, to find a bubble that had not fully broken, and he said no one offered one. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Grantham's 2011 resources report got many multiples of the hits of a typical GMO quarterly letter. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 Oil faces a short-term glut caused by U.S. fracking. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as discussed in Paris, will not be achieved. Prediction · Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Grantham believes food faces long-term intractable problems that will threaten political stability around the world, deep into the future. Prediction · Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 A quick or dramatic recovery in demand for metals is unlikely. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Grantham had earlier warned of trouble if China quickly slowed its demand growth for minerals. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Forestry should perform above aggregate portfolio averages and be less volatile than equities. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Farmland is likely to outperform most other assets. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Mineral resource stocks are unlikely to regain their losses but will probably outperform from current low prices, as after similar past crashes. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 By the time China's demand growth for metals and coal stopped, miners had spent an unprecedented $1.25 trillion on expansion. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Cutbacks in oil exploration will almost guarantee another sharp oil price spike within two to four years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 In the last 30 years investors experienced 4 of perhaps the best 8 classic bubbles known to history. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Investors are likely to get very low returns in the coming years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO cofounder, research note 31 August 2022 Jeremy Grantham: superbubble hasn't popped yet (Fortune)

Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge the US stock market downturn under way at 31 Aug 2022, using the S&P 500, over the 12 months that followed (to 31 Aug 2023). The 'worst' came later if the market set a new cycle low, closing below the June 2022 trough (S&P 500 close of about 3,667 on 16 June 2022). TRUE: the S&P 500 closed clearly below the June 2022 low (more than about 2% below it) at some point in that window. MOSTLY TRUE: a new closing low was set, but less than about 2% below the June 2022 low. MIXED: no new cycle low, but the index fell more than 10% below its 31 Aug 2022 close. MOSTLY FALSE: only a small further fall below the 31 Aug 2022 level (under 10%) with no new low. FALSE: the index did not fall meaningfully below its 31 Aug 2022 level, and the downturn ended without getting worse.

Evidence

  1. Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
    “#2022-10-12|3577.03”
  2. U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2022 - Commentary | S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Dow Jones Indices · 5 July 2022
    “It reached a closing low of -23.55% (3,666.77, on June 16), then seesawed upward, as buyers went bargain hunting”
  3. S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance
    “| Aug 31, 2022 | 4,000.67 | 4,015.37 | 3,954.53 | 3,955.00 | 3,955.00 | 4,542,490,000 |”
  4. Table Data - S&P 500 FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
    “#2022-06-16|3666.77”

Reasoning

The June 2022 closing low of the S&P 500 was 3,666.77 on June 16 (E2, E4), and the index closed at 3,955.00 on 31 Aug 2022 (E3). FRED's S&P 500 data show a close of 3,577.03 on 12 Oct 2022 (E1). That is about 2.4% below the June low and falls inside the 12-month window. Under the criteria, a new cycle low more than about 2% below the June trough resolves the claim as true.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.” (said 31 August 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8b5df671e656, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8b5df671e656

Claims without a verdict

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