Cutbacks in oil exploration will almost guarantee another sharp oil price spike within two to four years.

The test is whether a sharp oil price spike occurred by the end of January 2020, four years after the January 2016 claim. A spike that comes earlier than two years after the claim still counts, but the immediate rebound from the January–February 2016 trough does not count as 'another' spike. A 'sharp price spike' means Brent or WTI rising at least 50% within about 12 months, measured from a base set after the 2016 trough recovery (the base must be later than mid-2016), with the peak no later than 31 January 2020. TRUE if such a rise occurred within that window. MOSTLY TRUE if a qualifying spike occurred in the window but the rise was slightly under the threshold (about 40–50%), or took somewhat longer than 12 months. MIXED is not used, because this is a single-outcome prediction. MOSTLY FALSE if prices rose only moderately (about 20–40%), or if the qualifying spike peaked only after January 2020. FALSE if oil prices stayed broadly range-bound or fell over 2016–January 2020, with no rise of the stated size.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Oil Prices UK House of Commons Library · November 2022

   “After a brief recovery they fell again to a low of just over $27 per barrel in January 2016.”

2. E2 Oil Prices UK House of Commons Library · November 2022

   “There was a general increase in prices from early 2016 to late 2018 with taking levels back above $75 per barrel for much of mid-2018.”

3. E3 Oil Prices UK House of Commons Library · November 2022

   “Prices increased in January 2020 following growing tension between Iran and the US.”

E1 puts the trough at just over $27 per barrel in January 2016. E2 describes a general rise from early 2016 to late 2018, with prices back above $75 for much of mid-2018. The criteria require the base to be set after mid-2016, but no evidence gives a price for any point after mid-2016 before the 2018 peak. So we cannot tell whether a rise of at least 50% within about 12 months happened from a qualifying base, or how much of the gain was just the recovery from the 2016 trough. E3 notes only a price increase in January 2020, with no size given, so the evidence does not settle the claim.